(Updated at 1500 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell to more
than five-week lows on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer
price inflation cooled in April, boosting expectations that the
Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two times this year.
Headline consumer prices gained less than anticipated while
closely watched core prices were in line with economists'
projections.
It comes after higher-than-expected consumer price inflation
in the first quarter raised concerns that the U.S. central bank
will not be able to cut interest rates as many times as
previously expected this year.
"The market is breathing a sigh of relief that we're not
seeing perpetual upside surprises in inflation," said Gennadiy
Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New
York.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in 52 basis points
of cuts this year, up from 45 basis points on Tuesday, with the
first 25 basis point cut likely in September.
"This print keeps the door open to a cut I think as soon as
September," Goldberg said. However, "in the absence of further
catalysts the market could struggle to continue this bullish
momentum in rates."
The market is closely watching economic releases as Fed
policy remains largely data dependant.
The U.S. central bank will likely need to see several months
of data showing inflation easing before it begins cutting rates.
"The Fed needs to see further softening and consistent
softening in these inflation data if it's going to cut rates
this year," said Stephen Gallagher, chief economist at Societe
Generale in New York.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday
reiterated his view that he is unsure how restrictive monetary
policy is right now, and that borrowing costs should stay where
they are as U.S. central bankers take stock of inflation.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month after
advancing 0.4% in March and February, for an annual gain of
3.4%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining
0.4% on the month and advancing 3.4% year-on-year.
The closely watched core CPI rose 0.3% in April, as
expected, after advancing 0.4% in March. In the 12 months
through April, the core CPI increased 3.6%. That was the
smallest year-on-year gain since April 2021 and followed a 3.8%
increase in March.
Other data on Wednesday also showed that U.S. retail sales
were unexpectedly flat in April as higher gasoline prices pulled
spending away from other goods.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last down 9 basis
points at 4.356% and got as low as 4.340%, the lowest since
April 5.
Two-year yields fell 8 basis points to 4.736% and
reached 4.711%, also the lowest since April 5.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and
10-year notes was little changed on the day at
minus 38 basis points.