(Updated at 1500 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
July 26 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury
yields fell to a one-week low on Friday after data showed that
U.S. prices rose modestly in June, offsetting concerns about a
higher-than-expected uptick in inflation following
hotter-than-expected price increases for the second quarter on
Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index
nudged up 0.1% last month after being unchanged in May. The core
PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, following an unrevised
0.1% gain in May.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast both monthly
headline PCE and core inflation rising 0.1% in June. Some
economists increased their estimate, however, after data on
Thursday showed core prices rising by 2.9% in the second
quarter, above economists' expectations for a 2.7% gain.
"The upside surprise angst that was instilled based on the
quarterly data yesterday was to some extent overpriced, so
that's why I think that we had the relief rally," said Vail
Hartman, interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New
York.
Thursday's data also showed the U.S. economy growing at a
2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, double the first
quarter's 1.4% pace.
Interest rate sensitive two-year note yields were
last down 5.4 basis points at 4.389%. They reached 4.34% on
Thursday, the lowest since Feb. 2, before rebounding on the
growth and inflation data for the second quarter.
Benchmark 10-year note yields fell 5.6 basis
points to 4.2% and got as low as 4.19%, the lowest since July
19.
The closely watched yield curve between two-year and 10-year
notes was at minus 19 basis points, after
reaching minus 11 basis points on Thursday, the smallest
inversion since October.
An inversion in this part of the yield curve is seen as a
precursor to a recession, though the length of the current
inversion is longer than in previous episodes. It has been
negative since July 2022 and typically turns positive before an
economic downturn sets in.
Attention will now turn to the Federal Reserve's July 30-31
meeting. Traders see only a very slight chance of a rate cut
next week but will watch for clues that a September reduction is
coming, as is widely expected as inflation eases closer to the
Fed's 2% annual target.
Hartman noted that Friday's data brings the three-month
annualized rate for core PCE down to a year-to-date low of 2.3%,
"so the more recent trend is building upon the market's
confidence that we are on a trajectory that would get us to 2%
over the long run."
Traders are also pricing in a second and possible third Fed
rate cut by year end.
The government's employment report for July next Friday is
the next major economic focus that will help guide Fed
expectations.
The Treasury Department will also release its funding plans
for the coming two quarters and is expected to say that it will
keep most of its auction sizes unchanged for now.
(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Sharon Singleton and
Emelia Sithole-Matarise)