(Updated in New York afternoon time)
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Yields fall as economic data weakens
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GDP on Wednesday, payrolls on Friday next data focuses
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Treasury to release refunding details on Wednesday
By Karen Brettell
April 29 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury
yields fell for the sixth consecutive day to a three-week low on
Tuesday after data showed that U.S. job openings dropped sharply
in March while consumer confidence hit an almost five-year low.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased 288,000 to
7.192 million by the last day of March though a decline in
layoffs suggested that the labor market remained on solid
footing.
U.S. consumer confidence slumped in April as growing concerns
over tariffs weighed on the economic outlook.
"The data just generally is getting weaker," said Tom di
Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group. "That's
one of the main reasons why the markets are pointing towards
lower rates."
Investors are focused on data this week for guidance on the
health of the economy, with weaker readings likely boosting bets
that the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting rates.
Friday's jobs report for April is expected to show that
employers added 130,000 jobs during the month. The advance
estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter due on
Wednesday is also expected to show a sharp slowdown to 0.3%,
from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in
March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise
ahead of Trump's tariffs, suggesting trade was a large drag on
economic growth in the first quarter.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 65% odds of an
interest rate cut by June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch
Tool. Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of the May
6-7 meeting, when traders see only an 8% chance of a rate cut.
Falling commodity prices, including oil, may also make it
more likely that the U.S. central bank is closer to cutting
rates.
"Oil is dropping and commodities just generally seem to be
dropping and I think that that's a favorable outlook for
inflation," di Galoma said.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was
last down 3.5 basis points at 4.181%, the lowest since April 8.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations, fell 2.1 basis points to
3.664% and reached 3.648%, the lowest since April 7.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
was last at 51.5 basis points.
Market participants remain nervous about the impact of
tariffs, though the market has stabilized from a sharp selloff
earlier this month after U.S. President Donald Trump announced
larger than expected levies on trading partners.
Most of these increases have been delayed until July 9 and
investors are hopeful that the U.S. will reach trade deals
before the pause period lapses.
Trump will sign an order on Tuesday giving automakers building
vehicles in the U.S. relief from part of his new 25% vehicle
tariffs to allow them time to bring parts supply chains back
home, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.
Lutnick also said that Trump's administration has reached one
trade deal already and is waiting for approvals from that
country before announcing it.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that China
could lose 10 million jobs quickly due to tariffs and that
Beijing will see over time that Chinese tariffs are not
sustainable.
The Treasury is expected to keep auction sizes steady when it
announces its refunding plans for the coming quarter on
Wednesday. Traders will focus on any guidance about future
auction size increases.