NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
seesawed lower after a weaker-than-expected read on first
quarter U.S. growth underscored market reasoning that White
House tariff uncertainty will both weaken growth and increase
inflation in a dreaded "stagflation" scenario.
Gross domestic product decreased at a 0.3% annualized rate
last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance
estimate, much weaker that forecast 0.3% growth rate forecast by
economists polled by Reuters, and the 2.4% growth from the
October-December period.
The survey was, however, concluded before data on Tuesday
showed the goods trade deficit surged to an all-time high in
March amid record imports, which prompted a sharp downgrade of
GDP estimates.
At the same time the GDP deflator, a proxy for inflation,
was 3.7%, higher than last quarter's 2.3% and the expected 3.0%.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago said
it looked like real final sales were the weakest since the
pandemic, and before that since 2009, which may have initially
supported bonds before traders dug into the inflation components
and got out again to lift yields.
But that was also short lived as Wall Street opened sharply
lower in a risk off mood that encompassed the bond market on the
back of the first real economic hit from President Donald
Trump's trade polices.
"Reconsidering, they probably looked over to the inflation
measures, the GDP deflator and the PCE core, both significantly
higher than anticipated. And so there was a little bit of a push
me pull you on the bond market," he said.
The Q1 core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index
came in at 3.5%. The market will turn its attention to March's
monthly PCE price index at 10:00 a.m. EDT/1400 GMT, which ranks
as the Federal Reserves favorite indicator to assess how
inflation is doing against its 2% target.
Earlier, yields ticked lower after the release of the
ADP National Employment report showing 62,000 new jobs in April,
fewer than the previous month's downwardly revised 147,000.
ADP, along with Tuesday's Job Opening's and Labor
Turnover Survey (JOLTS) serve as runway indicators to Friday's
April payrolls report, likely to be the biggest news event of
the week.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was off 1.8 basis points from late Tuesday at
4.156%. The yield on the 30-year bond rose 0.4 bp
to 4.652%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 53.9 basis points, steeper than
late Tuesday's +52 bp.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations,
was 4.3 bp lower at 3.615%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.304% after closing at 2.292%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.223%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.
(Editing by Nick Zieminski)