(Updates with latest market activity throughout)
By Matt Tracy
Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields inched higher
on Wednesday, driven by higher corporate and government bond
supply, a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled
caution around the U.S. central bank's next interest rate
decision.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield
hit its highest since September 5 on Monday and was last up 1.7
basis points at 4.136%.
The 30-year bond yield was last up 1 bp from
Monday's close at 4.747%.
A handful of multibillion dollar high-grade corporate bond
offerings came to the market, including an
$18 billion six-part senior note package
from U.S. software maker Oracle. Analysts at BMO Capital
Markets noted that deal by itself will push September supply
well over the $178 billion record scored in September last year.
"Wednesday's weakness was more about the technicals and
weight of supply (in both corporate and Treasury bonds) than the
evolution of investors' views of the macro fundamentals," Vail
Hartman, an analyst on the U.S. rates strategy team at BMO, said
in an interview.
Government bond supply on Wednesday was driven by an
auction of $70 billion in five-year notes, which
followed Tuesday's $69 billion two-year auction. The
five-year auction had a 2.34x bid-to-cover ratio, while
Tuesday's two-year auction saw a 2.51x bid-to-cover, as dealer
demand for new paper has appeared light in recent auctions.
"Primary Dealers ended up with 11.5% of the total, which is
closer to the upper end of the recent range, and that reinforces
the idea that the demand for this sale was relatively light,"
said Lou Brien, economic strategist at DRW Trading Group, in a
written note.
The Treasury Department will auction $44 billion in
seven-year notes on Thursday.
The two-year yield, which typically reflects
interest rate expectations, was last down 3.6 bps from Tuesday's
close at 3.598%. It hit a three-week high of 3.6% in afternoon
trading on Monday.
The general direction of two-year yields over the last few
sessions appears to show the market is "leaning into the
arguments of the hawks in the wake of the FOMC," noted BMO's
Hartman.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
, seen as an indicator of economic expectations,
was last at 54.1 bps.
Yields rose last week despite the Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut
and its signal for more easing at future meetings. They declined
on Tuesday after Powell, in a speech, cited the danger of
cutting rates too quickly and risking a new surge of inflation.
Market participants are looking to further data showing the
direction of inflation and the job market for clues to the
likelihood of a further rate cut at the Fed's October meeting.
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance of a 25 bps cut in
October following Powell's Tuesday speech, and 6% odds of a
pause. U.S. rate futures have also priced in 44 bps worth of
cuts through the end of the year, according to LSEG data.
Economic data has been sparse this week, but included S&P
Global's flash U.S. purchasing managers' index releases for
September, which pointed to a slowing picture for services and
manufacturing.
New home sales data will come on Wednesday morning. Market
participants are awaiting the Thursday release of the latest
initial jobless claims data for last week.