(Updates throughout)
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Treasuries slip after earlier gains on last week's Fed
rate cut
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Market digests Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks
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Treasury sold $69 billion in two-year notes Tuesday
By Matt Tracy
Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields on Tuesday
inched lower following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell pointing to caution around the U.S. central bank's next
interest rate decision.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield hit
its highest since September 5 on Monday and was last down 0.7
basis points at 4.138%.
The 30-year bond yield, which gained for its
fourth consecutive session on Monday, was last slightly down 0.7
bps from Monday's close at 4.754%.
The yield declined after
Powell, in a speech,
cited the danger of cutting rates too quickly and risking a
new surge of inflation, or reducing rates too slowly and
possibly causing unemployment to rise unnecessarily. Fed
Governor Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic had
similar sentiments in their own remarks on Tuesday.
Yields rose last week despite the Fed's 25-basis-point rate
cut and its signal for more easing at future meetings. They
appear to have hit a quiet period this week as the market awaits
further data for indications of the economy's direction and the
chances of another rate cut or a rate pause at the Fed's October
meeting.
"Many people are in wait-and-see mode," said Dominique
Toublan, head of US credit strategy at Barclays. "You still have
unknowns, you still have risks."
Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 bp cut at the
Fed's October meeting, and 8% odds of a pause. U.S. rate futures
have also priced in 44 bps worth of cuts through the end of the
year, according to LSEG data.
The two-year yield, which typically reflects
interest rate expectations, was last down 0.7 bps from Monday's
close at 3.594%. It hit a three-week high of 3.6% in afternoon
trading on Monday.
"Our base case is still a cut in October and December ... but I
don't think it's going to be a done deal," said Gennadiy
Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
, seen as an indicator of economic expectations,
was last at 52.4 bps.
Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran, the sole
dissenter at last week's meeting in favor of steeper rate cuts,
repeated his sentiments on Monday. In contrast, three Fed
presidents all voiced caution around rate cuts in their own
Monday remarks.
"So far, the hawks have been on parade ... there are still
worries about inflation and potentially central bank
independence," Gennadiy added.
Economic data was sparse on Tuesday, but included S&P Global's
flash U.S. purchasing managers' index releases for September,
which pointed to a slowing picture for services and
manufacturing.
The Treasury Department auctioned $69 billion in two-year
notes on Tuesday with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.51x. It will
auction a further $70 billion in five-year notes and
$44 billion in seven-year notes later in the week.