(Updates as of 1400 ET)
By Alden Bentley
NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S. Treasury
yields slipped on Wednesday after a benign July U.S. consumer
inflation reading appeared to smooth the way for a Federal
Reserve easing next month of at least 25 basis points amid
lingering division over whether 50 bps is in the offing.
The yield on the 10-year note, along with the two year
yield, initially ticked higher after the Labor Department
reported its Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% last month
after falling 0.1% in June, and increased 2.9% year-on-year.
That was less inflationary than June's 3.0% annual advance and
the first time the rise has been below 3% since early 2021.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI increasing
0.2% on the month and 3.0% over 12 months.
The odds of a rate cut at the Fed's Sept. 17 to 18 policy
meeting had been nearly split between half a percentage point
and 25 bps. Futures moved in favor of a 25 bps cut after the
report, with odds at 64.5% according to LSEG calculations.
The 10-year yield eventually eased below Tuesday's low
following the news of a mild increase in July producer prices.
Two-year yields held steady.
"The market is thinking that inflation is a little bit more
sticky than the Fed was expecting, and they're penciling out
some of that 50 basis point pricing," said Gennadiy Goldberg,
head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.
"Other than that, I think this really checks the box for the
Fed to go in September. And of course, the big question for the
market is going to be 25 or 50, and I suspect that's going to be
determined over the next couple of weeks."
Traders are still pricing in a full percentage point of
easing from the current 5.25% to 5.5% fed funds rate by
year-end. The policy rate has not changed since July 2023, after
the Fed hiked from zero starting in March 2022.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago, said
that historical analysis based on last Friday's surprise news of
the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% suggested that 5%
unemployment could be in the cards by the Dec. 6 release of
November's employment report.
From a risk management standpoint the Fed should go with 50
bp in September, if fed funds are to fall by 100 bp over the
remaining three meetings in 2024, he posited.
"The (CPI) data was pretty benign and I don't think it gets
in way of the Fed making a move in September," he said. "I still
advocate that the Fed should be more aggressive at this stage of
the game because of where the unemployment rate is."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note
fell 2.6 basis points from late Tuesday at 3.828%. The 2-year
note yield, which typically moves in step with
interest rate expectations, was up 1.2 basis points to 3.9537%.
The 30-year bond yield fell 4.6 basis points
to 4.1214%.
The closely watched gap between yields on two- and 10-year
Treasury notes, considered a gauge of growth
expectations, was at negative 12.8 bps, slightly more inverted
than its reading of -9.2 bps late Tuesday. An inverted yield
curve is generally seen as pointing to a recession.
Hopes of an aggressive 50 bps easing in September briefly
shifted the gap between 2- and 10-year yields to a positive 1.5
bps last week, the first time the curve showed a more normal
upward slope since July 2022.