(Updated at 1040 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
June 5 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury
yields rebounded from a two-month low on Wednesday but remained
lower on the day after data showed that the U.S. services sector
snapped back into growth mode in May after a short-lived
contraction the month before.
The Institute for Supply Management said its
non-manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 53.8 last
month from 49.4 in April. The report's business activity index
shot up 10.3 points, the largest rise since March 2021 and
vaulting it to 61.2, the highest level since November 2022.
The business activity index is "really driving that whole
index higher," said Ellis Phifer, managing director of fixed
income research at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.
"It's just a little bit of a fly in the ointment when we're
looking at data that's been coming in a little bit softer than
expected, especially ahead of the nonfarm payrolls coming up on
Friday," he said.
Yields have tumbled this week as softening economic data
boosts expectations that the Federal Reserve will make two 25
basis point cuts this year.
This week's main U.S. economic release will be the
government's nonfarm payrolls report for May due on Friday,
which is expected to show that employers added 185,000 jobs in
May. It comes after April's report showed that jobs growth
slowed more than expected, with 175,000 job gains, the fewest in
six months.
Traders have said that market participants are preparing for
a weaker figure on Friday than economists expect.
Benchmark 10-year yields hit a two-month low after the ADP
Employment report showed earlier on Wednesday that private
payrolls increased by 152,000 jobs last month, below economists'
forecasts for 175,000 in jobs gains.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last down 2
basis points at 4.314% and got as low as 4.295%, the lowest
since April 1.
Two-year note yields fell 2 basis points to
4.756% and reached 4.741%, the lowest since May 16.
The inversion in the two-year, 10-year yield curve
was little changed on the day at minus 44 basis
points.
This week's bond rally has also been driven by relief over
an absence of new bond supply, after some Treasury auctions last
week saw soft demand.
"This week has really just been about a lack of supply in
the interest rate markets compounding a little bit of negativity
on the economy," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist
at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. "I don't think the
economic downside is enough to explain all the movement."
Other data on Tuesday showed that job openings, a measure of
labor demand, were down 296,000 to 8.059 million on the last day
of April, the lowest level since February 2021.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday showing
that U.S. inflation was steady in April and a report on Monday
showing that U.S. manufacturing slowed for a second straight
month in May added to the bond rally.
Next week's consumer price index (CPI) for May will be key
for guiding Fed expectations in the near-term. It will come on
Wednesday morning before the Fed is due to complete its two-day
policy meeting, when Fed officials will update their economic
and interest rate projections.