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TREASURIES-Yields recover as Fed calms investor nerves; rate cut bets in focus
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TREASURIES-Yields recover as Fed calms investor nerves; rate cut bets in focus
Aug 5, 2024 10:35 PM

Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields edged away from

one-year lows on Tuesday after comments from the Federal Reserve

officials and economic data helped allay some of the recession

fears that have led to a massive selloff in stock markets and

roiled investors.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically

moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 8 basis

points (bps) to 3.965% in Asian hours, having touched 3.654% on

Monday, the lowest since April 2023.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note

was 6.3 bps higher at 3.847%, also moving away from

the over one-year low of 3.667% hit the previous session.

Last week's softer-than-expected U.S. job data stoked

recession worries and led to a plunge in stocks, with traders

fleeing to safe havens.

"Recession concerns will likely remain easy to trigger as

the U.S. growth slowdown broadens and the market will likely

remain fragile as it continues to look for some sort of a

response from the Fed," said Charu Chanana, head of currency

strategy at Saxo.

Yields got a lift late on Monday after policymakers pushed

back on against the notion that soft job data means the economy

is in recessionary freefall. However, they cautioned that the

Fed will need to cut rates to avoid such an outcome.

"You only want to be that restrictive if you think there's

fear of overheating," Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee

said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC.

"These data, to me, do not look like overheating ... as you

see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking

yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at

where the economy is headed for making the decisions."

Data showed that the vast U.S. services sector rebounded

from a four-year low last month, with a measure of services

employment rising for the first time since January.

Traders are now anticipating 109 bps of easing this year

from the Fed, with a 50 bps cut in September priced in at 72.5%

chance, CME FedWatch tool showed, compared with 100% chance

earlier on Monday. Traders had even begun positioning for a

possible emergency rate cut before September.

"There is still another six weeks before the next Fed

meeting on Sept. 18 and there is a lot of economic data on tap

between now and then which could change the odds," said Vasu

Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.

The gap between two-and 10-year Treasury notes

was last at minus 12.2 bps, after reaching 1.50

bps briefly on Monday. It was the first time it has turned

positive since July 2022.

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