Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields edged away from
one-year lows on Tuesday after comments from the Federal Reserve
officials and economic data helped allay some of the recession
fears that have led to a massive selloff in stock markets and
roiled investors.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 8 basis
points (bps) to 3.965% in Asian hours, having touched 3.654% on
Monday, the lowest since April 2023.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was 6.3 bps higher at 3.847%, also moving away from
the over one-year low of 3.667% hit the previous session.
Last week's softer-than-expected U.S. job data stoked
recession worries and led to a plunge in stocks, with traders
fleeing to safe havens.
"Recession concerns will likely remain easy to trigger as
the U.S. growth slowdown broadens and the market will likely
remain fragile as it continues to look for some sort of a
response from the Fed," said Charu Chanana, head of currency
strategy at Saxo.
Yields got a lift late on Monday after policymakers pushed
back on against the notion that soft job data means the economy
is in recessionary freefall. However, they cautioned that the
Fed will need to cut rates to avoid such an outcome.
"You only want to be that restrictive if you think there's
fear of overheating," Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee
said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC.
"These data, to me, do not look like overheating ... as you
see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking
yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at
where the economy is headed for making the decisions."
Data showed that the vast U.S. services sector rebounded
from a four-year low last month, with a measure of services
employment rising for the first time since January.
Traders are now anticipating 109 bps of easing this year
from the Fed, with a 50 bps cut in September priced in at 72.5%
chance, CME FedWatch tool showed, compared with 100% chance
earlier on Monday. Traders had even begun positioning for a
possible emergency rate cut before September.
"There is still another six weeks before the next Fed
meeting on Sept. 18 and there is a lot of economic data on tap
between now and then which could change the odds," said Vasu
Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.
The gap between two-and 10-year Treasury notes
was last at minus 12.2 bps, after reaching 1.50
bps briefly on Monday. It was the first time it has turned
positive since July 2022.