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TREASURIES-Yields rise as traders wait on data, Fed meeting
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TREASURIES-Yields rise as traders wait on data, Fed meeting
Jul 19, 2024 7:52 AM

July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday

with no major catalysts to drive market reaction as investors

waited on fresh data next week and a Federal Reserve policy

meeting later this month to provide the next clues on when the

U.S. central bank is likely to begin cutting interest rates.

Yields have tumbled this month as softer jobs data and

easing inflation boost the odds of near-term rate cuts and a

first cut by September is seen as a sure thing.

Fed officials have said that the economic data is improving

the odds of rate cuts but have been reluctant to commit to when

they may start.

"You have a market that is convinced that the Fed is going

to cut in September and you have a Fed that's sounding a little

bit cautious," said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist at Wells

Fargo in Charlotte. "We're starting to see looser labor market

conditions and inflation that's cooperating, especially after

that more troubling first quarter."

The next economic clues will come next week with gross

domestic product for the second quarter on Thursday and

personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for June on Friday.

Investors will then focus on comments by Fed chair Jerome

Powell at the conclusion of the Fed's July 30-31 meeting for any

hints that a September cut is likely.

"The July FOMC will certainly be interesting. I wonder how

strong Powell's guidance is going to be. Perhaps something along

the lines of if we continue to receive good inflation data, we

can start to remove some policy restraint as early as

September," said Manolatos.

Interest rate sensitive two-year yields were last

up 5 basis points on the day at 4.509% and benchmark 10-year

yields rose 5.5 basis points to 4.241%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes

steepened by around one basis point to minus 27

basis points.

Bets that they yield curve will steepen has been a popular

trade on expectations that shorter-dated yields will decline

faster than longer-dated ones as the Fed gets closer to cutting

rates.

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