July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday
with no major catalysts to drive market reaction as investors
waited on fresh data next week and a Federal Reserve policy
meeting later this month to provide the next clues on when the
U.S. central bank is likely to begin cutting interest rates.
Yields have tumbled this month as softer jobs data and
easing inflation boost the odds of near-term rate cuts and a
first cut by September is seen as a sure thing.
Fed officials have said that the economic data is improving
the odds of rate cuts but have been reluctant to commit to when
they may start.
"You have a market that is convinced that the Fed is going
to cut in September and you have a Fed that's sounding a little
bit cautious," said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist at Wells
Fargo in Charlotte. "We're starting to see looser labor market
conditions and inflation that's cooperating, especially after
that more troubling first quarter."
The next economic clues will come next week with gross
domestic product for the second quarter on Thursday and
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for June on Friday.
Investors will then focus on comments by Fed chair Jerome
Powell at the conclusion of the Fed's July 30-31 meeting for any
hints that a September cut is likely.
"The July FOMC will certainly be interesting. I wonder how
strong Powell's guidance is going to be. Perhaps something along
the lines of if we continue to receive good inflation data, we
can start to remove some policy restraint as early as
September," said Manolatos.
Interest rate sensitive two-year yields were last
up 5 basis points on the day at 4.509% and benchmark 10-year
yields rose 5.5 basis points to 4.241%.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
steepened by around one basis point to minus 27
basis points.
Bets that they yield curve will steepen has been a popular
trade on expectations that shorter-dated yields will decline
faster than longer-dated ones as the Fed gets closer to cutting
rates.