NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on
Monday as traders waited on key inflation data due this week to
see whether stubbornly high price pressures could derail
expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points
at the conclusion of its Dec. 17-18 meeting, with a pause then
seen as likely in January.
But inflation is key to whether the Fed will continue to cut
rates.
Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell have said that
recent upticks in its preferred Personal Consumption
Expenditures data reflect a bumpy path to its 2% annual target,
but don't change the overall trend.
"If we see a convincing uptick that the Fed isn't able to
continue using that bumpy excuse on, then that will call into
question whether or not the Fed can deliver a rate cut next
week," said Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital
Markets in New York.
Hartman said a solid to high 0.4% gain in core consumer
prices could raise doubts over a cut next week, but rate
expectations will also depend on producer prices.
Economists expect consumer prices released on Wednesday will
show that both headline and core prices rose by 0.3% in
November, for an annual gain of 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
Producer prices released on Thursday are expected to show a
0.2% monthly increase in November in both headline and core, for
a 2.6% and 3.2% annual increase.
The next PCE release is due on Dec. 20.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last up 2.7 basis
points at 4.18%. Interest rate sensitive two-year yields
rose 2.2 basis points to 4.12%.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
steepened by around a basis point to 6 basis
points.
Traders added to bets of a December rate cut after jobs data
for November released on Friday showed some warning signs that
the labor market was weakening. The unemployment rate rose to
4.2% from 4.1% despite strong jobs gains during the month.
Some underlying details in the report, including a weaker
household survey, also pointed to declining labor market
strength.
"The aggregate data is conforming with the whole slowdown
theme," said Hartman.
Fed officials are now in a blackout period before next
week's meeting.
Traders are also watching geopolitical events after rebels
seized the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Risk appetite was boosted on news that China will adopt an
"appropriately loose" monetary policy next year, the first
easing of its stance in some 14 years, alongside a more
proactive fiscal policy to spur economic growth.