Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday
before the Treasury Department sells $42 billion in 10-year
notes and as stocks continued to stabilize, reducing demand for
the safe haven U.S. debt.
Treasury supply is the main focus this week as traders wait
on fresh economic data for further clues on the strength of the
U.S. economy. Yields tumbled after Friday's employment report
for July showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate,
while jobs gains also came in below economists' forecasts.
With no major economic releases this week to drive market
direction, the market is largely consolidating above more than
one-year yield lows reached on Monday.
"Trying to find out where the exact kind of resistance
levels are on the Treasury curve is a work in progress," said
Michael Lorizio, senior fixed income trader at Manulife
Investment Management in Boston.
Lorizio expects Wednesday's sale of 10-year Treasuries to
see good demand from investors, though it's possible that yields
will rise before the sale as corporate issuers also come to
market.
"You have a lot of issuers who paused on Monday and even
maybe held back yesterday just to make sure the coast was clear
in terms of how risk assets are going to be received and now are
coming to market today," Lorizio said.
The government saw solid demand for a $58 billion sale of
three-year notes on Tuesday. It will also sell $25 billion in
30-year bonds on Thursday.
Yields on interest rate-sensitive two-year notes
were last up 2.3 basis points on the day at 4.005%, after going
as low as 3.654% on Monday, the lowest since April 2023.
Benchmark 10-year note yields rose 5.5 basis
points to 3.943% after reaching 3.667% on Monday, the lowest
since June 2023.
The gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
shrank 3 basis points to minus 6.6 basis points.
It reached 1.50 basis points on Monday, the first time it has
turned positive since July 2022.
Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by
50 basis points at its next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18, but
they are also pricing in a 39% chance of a smaller 25 basis
point rate reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch
Tool.
The odds of an emergency rate cut before the September
meeting have fallen as risk markets recover and analysts say
concerns about such a move were overblown.
The next major U.S. economic release will be consumer price
inflation for July on Aug. 14. Comments by Fed Chair Jerome
Powell at the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on
Aug. 22-24 may also provide new clues on the path of rate cuts.
Traders are also focused on whether there will be more
unwinding of leveraged trades involving the Japanese yen, which
has been blamed as a key factor behind recent weakness in
international stock markets.
Selling the Japanese currency and buying U.S. assets has
been a popular trade in recent years due to the wide interest
rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This trade has
come under pressure due to a strong yen rally due to
intervention by Japanese authorities and an unexpectedly large
rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could also
increase demand for U.S. Treasuries.