(Updates with latest market activity throughout, new comments)
By Matt Tracy
May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday
following reports that the United States and Iran have neared a
final draft of a peace deal.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note
was last down 0.8 basis points on the day at 4.575%. It reached
its highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday, surging to
4.687%.
The 30-year Treasury bond's yield, which is seen
as a barometer of geopolitical and fiscal risk, was last down
roughly two bps at 5.096%. It briefly touched 5.197% on Tuesday,
its highest since July 2007 before the global financial crisis.
An earlier selloff in U.S. and global bond markets this and last
week led yields to hit months- or years-long highs. But yields
fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump's comments that a
final draft of a deal to end the Iran war was in its final
stages.
"The sticker shock to the market and to the media yields
have been breaking out higher for a while now and the pendulum
of sentiment has been swinging away from the rate cut theme that
Trump is touting right now," said Vail Hartman, U.S. rates
strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Yields rose again in early Thursday trading alongside oil
prices, as Brent crude oil prices bounced back from
their Wednesday decline following Trump's comments.
But they reversed course after Thursday showed U.S. weekly
jobless claims fell in the week ended May 16. Yields fell
further Thursday after Iran state media said its government was
reviewing the latest U.S. proposal for a peace deal.
The two-year Treasury note yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal
Reserve, was last up 2.3 bps at 4.08%. A closely watched part of
the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields
on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an
indicator of economic expectations, was last at 49.3 bps.
Investors are now pricing in a roughly 60% chance the Fed
could raise rates in December, and a 98.9% chance it maintains
current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME
FedWatch tool.
"We're thinking that rates remain elevated for the remainder
of the year and that the curve stays around the same level for
the rest of the year," said Molly Brooks, U.S. rates strategist
at TD Securities.
The Treasury Department on Thursday sold $19 billion in
10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which
had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53, which was higher than the
previous auction's 2.38.
Indirect bidders, which can include governments, fund
managers and insurance companies, took down roughly 61% of the
sale, while direct bidders made up 27.5%. The 10-year TIPS'
yield was last up 1.1 bps at 2.144%.