NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields eased
early on Friday, marking time before the release of a report on
December manufacturing that will be the last morsel to trade on
in a week still quieted by the year-end holidays.
The Institute of Supply Management adds its purchasing
managers index from last month into the mix at 10 a.m. ET/1500
GMT. Manufacturing makes up a far smaller portion of the U.S.
economy than the consumption side and the market will be more
focused on the string of labor market data coming out next week
culminating in Friday's December employment report.
Given low unemployment and stubborn inflation, the Federal
Reserve is expected to refrain from easing again this month,
with traders in Fed funds futures putting the odds of it
standing pat near 90% and chances of the first 25 basis point
cut of 2025 coming in March at 50/50.
The Fed reduced interest rates by a full percentage point
from September to December, beginning a more accommodative
monetary policy after hiking rates from zero to about 5.5% in
2022 and 2023.
There is also uncertainty over how President-elect Donald
Trump's promised tariffs, tax cuts and immigration crackdown
might affect the economy and already enormous fiscal deficit.
A complicating factor for how fast those policies are
implemented is Friday's Republican House members' vote on
whether to let Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House. If he
loses the too-close-to-call vote and no other speaker is chosen
by Jan. 6, the House will not be able to certify Trump's
election victory on that day.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was
3.2 basis points below Thursday's late level to 4.543%. The
30-year bond yield fell 3.5 basis points to 4.7629%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve,
fell 1.3 basis points to 4.235%.
The closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 30.6 basis points, slightly
flatter than +31.5 bp late Thursday.
(Editing by Daniel Wallis)