* Stocks slump as investors seek safety in government debt
* Two-year yield stays near February 2025 highs after
touching 4.236% Monday
* Core PCE seen rising 0.3% in May, with annual rate
forecast at 3.4%
* Treasury to auction $183 billion in notes this week,
starting with $69 billion Tuesday
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, June 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on
Tuesday as a stock market selloff drove investors toward the
safety of government debt. Short-dated yields, however, held
near 16-month highs as traders continued to weigh the prospect
of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fell to over one-week lows, dragged
down by sharp losses in semiconductor stocks as investors braced
for a more hawkish U.S. central bank and scrutinized growing
debt-funded AI spending.
Treasury yields have climbed since the Fed held interest rates
steady last Wednesday, after policymakers signaled they expect
to raise borrowing costs later this year amid persistent
inflation running above the central bank's 2% target.
"The committee spoke pretty loudly in that summary of
economic projections with a 'dot plot' that really made a
material hawkish turn," said Michael Lorizio, head of U.S. rates
and mortgage trading at Manulife Investment Management.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said on Monday that
with the labor market on solid footing, his focus is on whether
stubbornly high inflation will prove lasting or gradually ease
as the impact of elevated tariffs fades and tensions in the
Middle East stabilize.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Iran had agreed to
nuclear inspections into "infinity," despite Tehran's denials,
and that unfrozen Iranian assets would be used to buy
humanitarian supplies from the United States.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with Fed interest rate expectations, fell 3.8 basis points
to 4.192%. It reached 4.236% on Monday, the highest since
February 2025.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell
2.8 basis points to 4.479%.
The yield curve between two- and 10-year notes
steepened to 28.7 basis points.
In an early sign of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's
influence, last week's policy statement was notably stripped of
any forward guidance on future rate moves, instead simply
stating the rate decision and reaffirming the Fed's commitment
to maintaining "ample reserves in the banking system."
With less guidance to lean on, analysts now expect economic
data to play an even bigger role in shaping Fed expectations.
The week's main release will be the PCE inflation report on
Thursday.
"We're going to get a stark reminder of the potential need
for higher rates when we get PCE on Thursday, and that's
something that's quite uncomfortable for the Fed," said Lorizio.
Core prices in the PCE report are expected to have risen
0.3% in May, putting the annual rate at 3.4%. Headline inflation
is forecast at 0.5% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year.
The Treasury Department will sell $69 billion in two-year
notes on Tuesday, kicking off $183 billion in short- and
intermediate-term coupon-bearing note auctions this week. It
will also sell $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and
$44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.