(Updates as of 1456 ET)
By Alden Bentley
NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields eased
on Friday, partly reversing the previous day's big gains as
investors digested data showing a resilient U.S. consumer and
inflation trending lower, leaving the Federal Reserve ample
scope for a small interest rate cut next month.
Treasuries ended lightly mixed after such an up-and-down
week, and volatility subsided almost as dramatically as it
spiked two weeks ago. The rise in volatility came after an
unemployment rate reading sparked near-panic that the economy
was heading for a recession rather than a soft landing.
That briefly sent yields tumbling to levels not seen in more
than a year as investors moved into the safety of Treasuries and
jettisoned stocks.
But this week healthy retail sales data and a smaller than
expected rise in weekly unemployment claims on the heels of
benign inflation readings earlier in the week restored
confidence in the economic picture. That launched two-year and
10-year yields into their biggest rises in weeks as investors
reversed course. Yields on bonds fall when their prices rise.
"Yields are a little bit lower, so Treasuries are still
looking pretty good. Bouncing back," said Kim Rupert, managing
director of fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco.
"It's been super-volatile, so we are seeing some calming in
the market. I think with a rate cut pretty much settled now for
September, the markets are cheering that."
Rupert also said there was an uptick of safe-haven demand
for Treasuries on Friday, mainly due to geopolitical risk
factors such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine
war.
Interest rate futures traders scaled back bets that the Fed
would need to cut 50 basis points when it next meets in
September.
Based on the fed funds futures term structure, they
now see a 74% chance of a 25 bps ease in the policy rate, which
has been in a 5.25%-5.5% target range since the Fed stopped
hiking rates in July 2023.
Since there is no Federal Open Market Committee meeting in
August, the market seeks a strong signal from Fed Chair Jerome
Powell next Friday when he speaks at the U.S. Central Bank's
annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
"Today is just a little bit of a pullback of yesterday's
oversized move. We kind of showed that you're seeing cracks in
unemployment, but the underlying trend hasn't really collapsed,"
said Jan Nevruzi, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities in New
York.
"I think it will be harder for Powell to make the case that
we need an outsized cut at next week's Jackson Hole speech," he
said.
Weak July housing starts and building permits data kept
pressure on yields before they ticked a bit higher following the
release of a stronger-than-expected preliminary August
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reading of
67.8, up from July's 66.4.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee on
Friday told National Public Radio that the U.S. economy is not
showing signs of overheating, so central bank officials should
be wary of keeping restrictive policy in place longer than
necessary.
"You don't want to tighten any longer than you have to,"
Goolsbee said. "And the reason you'd want to tighten is if
you're afraid the economy is overheating, and this is not what
an overheating economy looks like to me."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note
fell 3.6 bps from late Thursday to 3.89%, paring Thursday's gain
that was the biggest in a week. For the week it lost 5.2 bps.
The two-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations and reached its highest
since Aug. 2 on Thursday, was last down 3.7 bps at 4.0644%. Its
15.9 bps rise the previous session was the biggest since April
10. For the week it was less than 1 bp higher.
The 30-year bond yield fell 3.3 basis points to
to 4.1466%.
The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE index of fixed income market
volatility closed unchanged from Thursday at 103.74, but
well below last week's peak at 121.22, which was the highest
since Jan 4.
The closely watched gap between yields on two- and 10-year
Treasury notes, considered a gauge of growth
expectations, was at negative 17.6 bps, barely changed from late
Thursday.
An inverted yield curve is generally seen as pointing to a
recession. During the market freak-out early last week, hopes of
an aggressive September easing shifted the gap between 2- and
10-year yields to a positive 1.5 bps, the first time the curve
had a more normal upward slope since July 2022.
The implied breakeven inflation rate on 10-year Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) fell to
2.0820% from 2.1150 late Thursday.
The five-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate
fell back below 2% to 1.9703%. This suggests that investors
think annual inflation will average below the Fed's 2% target
rate for the next five years.