(Updates as of 1402 ET)
By Alden Bentley
NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
firmed in an abbreviated session on Thursday, with an upward
revision to U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth providing little
impetus ahead of the start of the long Easter weekend.
With bond and stock markets closed on Good Friday, Thursday
was a subdued end to a quarter that saw government bond and note
yields rise as the economy looked poised to avoid recession this
year.
Thanks to strong consumer spending and business investment
in nonresidential structures like factories, gross domestic
product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter,
revised up from the previously reported 3.2% pace, the Commerce
Department said in its third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.
A report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed
initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended March 23.
The healthy numbers did not move the needle for the bond
market. Bond traders are more focused on the Federal Reserve's
favored Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Index report
to be released by the Commerce Department on Friday, which is
not a government holiday.
The yield on U.S. 10-year notes was up 0.6 basis
point at 4.202% when the market closed at 2 p.m. ET. The
benchmark yield rose about 35 basis points in the first three
months of the year.
Last week the Fed left the fed funds rate in the 5.25% to
5.50% range it has been at since July.
The Fed has said it expects to lower interest rates this
year, and its median dot plot estimate last week still showed 75
basis points in easing for 2024. But the Fed is in no rush to
start cutting rates after recent reports showing inflation
rising and the economy showing little sign of significant
slowing.
"The UK, the euro area and Canada have fewer doubts about
the decline in inflation. The problem is that the Fed is
confronting a situation where there has been an uptick in
inflation in the U.S. in January and February," said Thierry
Wizman, Macquarie's global FX and interest rates strategist in
New York.
"Whether that's a fluke or whether that has to do with
mismeasurement of the data is yet to be seen," Wizman said, "but
logically it should call for a little bit more caution from the
Fed than from the other central banks."
Futures traders currently see about a 63% probability that
the Fed will lower rates by at least 25 basis points at its June
meeting, according to LSEG data.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated
monetary policy discussion Friday, meaning the market won't be
able to react to the two most important news events of this week
until Monday.
"All the key data is actually tomorrow instead of today.
It's a very strange week," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S.
rates strategy at TD Securities, in New York. "It's the age-old
question: 'If PCE falls in the forest, is anyone around to hear
it.'"
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations, rose 5.2 basis points on
the day to 4.6221%, and marked a 38 basis-point quarterly rise.
The 30-year bond yield fell 1.2 basis points to
4.3474% on Thursday and was up 33 basis points in the quarter.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 42.4 basis points, about 3 bp
more inverted than at the close of 2023. It was at -37.4 bp late
Wednesday.
(Additional reporting by Herb Lash; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
and Leslie Adler)