(Updates to New York afternoon)
By Alden Bentley and Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Tuesday as investors returned from the Presidents Day holiday
weekend, digesting last week's market swings and another piece
of data showing growth remains strong enough to complicate the
Federal Reserve's easing path.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield briefly dipped,
then rose after the New York Fed's February Empire State
business conditions index came in at a stronger-than-expected
5.7, versus -12.6 in January.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago, said
the report supported the idea that the economy was in even
better shape than when the Fed met in January and left the
policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%, after bringing it down a percentage
point since September.
"On a holiday week like this when volumes might be a little
light, sometimes lesser data can move the market a little bit
more than usual," Brien said.
Other data on Tuesday showed U.S. homebuilder sentiment
tumbled to a five-month low in February on worries that tariffs
on imports would combine with higher mortgage rates to further
drive up housing costs.
Brien added that Wednesday's release of the Federal Open
Market Committee meeting minutes for January could give the
market an interesting juxtaposition between how the economy
looked then and subsequently.
But the events calendar is light. The Treasury International
Capital System (TICS) report on foreign Treasury holdings on
Tuesday showed Japan and China both cut their holdings in
December. The Treasury Department will auction $16 billion in
20-year bonds on Wednesday and $9 billion in 30-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities on Thursday. S&P Global releases
manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday.
The fed funds futures term structure shows traders
expect the Fed to stand pat until at least July before it eases
another 25 basis points, with another cut not coming until
perhaps January, according to LSEG calculations.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield
was up 6.7 basis points on the day at 4.543%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations,
was 3.6 basis points higher at 4.295%.
The 30-year bond yield rose 6.7 basis points
to 4.7627%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
, seen as an indicator of economic expectations,
was at a positive 24.5 bps, steeper than 21.3 bps late Friday.
Investors are also watching progress in U.S.-Russia peace
talks on ending the war in Ukraine after an initial meeting that
excluded Kyiv.
BUMPY PROGRESS
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that
while there was no reason to be discouraged about the bumpy and
sometimes imperceptible progress toward the U.S. central bank's
2% inflation target, the Fed should keep short-term borrowing
costs where they are until progress is more visible.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said on Monday he
agrees policy should remain on hold until inflation falls again.
That may only be a matter of time, he said, noting that a recent
"disappointing" rise in the Consumer Price Index may reflect
seasonal issues, not rising price pressures.
He said his "baseline" view is that the Trump
administration's new tariffs will have only a modest impact on
prices that the Fed should try to look through in setting
monetary policy.
Treasuries seesawed last week, with the 10-year yield rising
on Wednesday to 4.66%, its highest in nearly three weeks, off a
hot January Consumer Price Index report. It then tumbled through
Friday as PPI and retail sales data indicated inflation was less
worrisome and the consumer was less active than expected.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.672% after closing at 2.651% on February 14.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.457%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging under
2.5% a year for the next decade.