04:22 PM EDT, 05/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is making light of a U.S. markets holiday Monday, with the S&P/TYSX Composite Index closing up 52.51 points to 22,373.38, adding to the 120 points gained on Friday following a losing week, as the index is up nearly 3% in May.

The biggest sector gainers were Battery Metals, up 2.2% and Energy, up 0.34%.

Health Care and Information Technology were down -0.6% and -0.5% respectively.

In terms of stocks and sectors here, Bank of Nova Scotia ( BNS ) restarts the Fiscal Q2 Canadian bank earnings season tomorrow and it will be followed by Bank of Montreal ( NRGD ) and National Bank (NA.TO) the next day, and CIBC (CM.TO) on Thursday with Laurentian (LB.TO)and Canadian Western Bank ( CWESF ) also due this week.

Toronto-Dominion Bank ( MLWIQXX ) released its numbers last week.

And in terms of data, GDP figures due out on Friday will be the final significant releases ahead of the BoC decision one week from Wednesday. Q1 GDP is widely expected to land somewhere between about 2% and 2.5% q/q SAAR.

ScotiaBank said: "There is significant uncertainty in both directions given that key components like parts of the services sector and inventory contributions are difficult to estimate in the absence of enough data."

It noted the BoC's April MPR had forecast Q1 at 2.8% q/q SAAR which was a major upgrade from its view in the January MPR when they forecast basically no growth (0.5% q/q SAAR).

More important than Q1, Scotia said, could be the estimate for March GDP relative to StatCan guidance on April 30 that it was "essentially unchanged," plus the advance "flash" estimate for April. Scotia wouldn't be surprised to see a slight dip in March GDP. It said April GDP could get a "solid lift" from drivers like a large 0.8% m/m SA jump in hours worked after the prior 0.3% drop, given that GDP is hours times labour productivity.

Scotia noted tracking also points to gains in retail and manufacturing sales volumes, but a slight slip in housing starts during April.

Overall, Scotia wouldn't be surprised to see April's preliminary estimate land a similar rate to the 0.4% gain in February that itself was the hottest print since May of last year.

If so, Scotia said, then Q2 GDP could have a "running head start" with over 1% q/q SAAR growth "baked in" just based ont he Q1 average and April estimate while assuming no change in May and June solely in order to focus the math on the effects on what may be known come Friday.

So, the bank added, after Q4 surprised the BoC by about a percentage point higher than they had forecast and if Q1 is around 2-to-2.5% and Q2 has a "running head start," then these are "material upside surprises" to the BoC's more dovish narrative earlier in the year that the first half would be "peak pain" for the Canadian economy.

BMO in its morning note, noted global equity markets were mostly lower last week, with the Nasdaq (+1.4%), one of the few markets ending higher thanks to Nvidia. The Dow (-2.3%) and CSI (-2.1%) were the laggards, while the TSX slipped 0.6%. TSX sectors were almost mostly lower, with consumer staples (+2.9%) and tech (+0.6%) the only exceptions. Health care (-3.8%), materials (-2.8%) and telcos (-1.6%) led the way down. BMO said the weekly pullback trimmed the TSX's year-to-date gains to a "seemingly respectable" +6.5%, though it's still lagging among major markets.

BMO also noted it's a mostly quiet start to the week in Canada, with the U.S. and U.K. closed today and this week's key Canada release, Q1 & March GDP, out on Friday. BMO is looking for Q1 to clock in at 2.3% annualized (below the BoC's 2.8% in the April MPR), but still the best pace in a year. BMO noted the economy started the year off strongly, with a huge January GDP print. However, momentum faded as the quarter progressed, with an expected 0.1% contraction in March GDP. Given the anticipated weak ending to Q1, BMO said it will be watching the flash estimate for April GDP closely to see if activity bounced to start Q2. Thus far, it added, the early indications are pointing in that direction, as the flash estimates for retail sales and manufacturing activity climbed.

Oil prices rose in holiday electronic trade mid-afternoon on Monday as the high-demand U.S. driving seasons begins with the focus on demand ahead of Saturday's OPEC+ ministerial meeting that is expected to extend 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary supply cuts into the third quarter. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$0.83 to US$78.55 per barrel, while July Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up US$0.98 to US$83.104.

Gold prices traded higher mid-afternoon, rising for the first time in five sessions early on Monday in light holiday trade as the dollar edged down. Gold for August delivery was last seen up $17.80 to US$2,374.70 per ounce.