04:24 PM EDT, 06/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian investors kicked off their celebrations early ahead of tomorrow's Canada Day holiday by pushing the Toronto Stock Exchange to another fresh record close on Monday.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 164.79 points at 26,857.11, well up from what was then a record close of 26,388.96 struck on June 2, the first of eight record highs set over the month. Most sectors were higher on Monday. The biggest gainers were Health Care, up 1.9%. and Telecom, up 1.3%. Two influential sectors in Energy, down 0.5%, and Base Metals down 0.35%, were lower.

Over recent months Canadians have been using the phrase 'elbows up', originating from the idea of protecting yourself or fighting back in hockey, to encourage each other to stand up to the United States in the face of threats to the country's economy and sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Investors appear to have adopted the phrase when investing, driving the TSX to the series of all time record closes in June despite outside threats from a global tariffs war, which could lead to a global recession, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The gains have also come even as the Canadian economy has been struggling of late.

Veteran market watcher, David Rosenberg, likely wouldn't mind seeing some 'elbows up' from officials at the Bank of Canada in terms of their thinking on interest rates.

In a note published June 27, Rosenberg noted the Canadian economy had enjoyed a "false glow" from a sales tax holiday and the front-running of spending and exports ahead of the U.S.-imposed tariffs. "But now its true colors are showing." he said, noting "an economy as flat as a queue de castor", referring to what French-speaking Canadians call popular pastries otherwise known as 'beaver tails', a sort of doughnut.

He noted Real GDP dipped 0.1% month over month in April, falling below the consensus call of 0%, after a modestly upward revision to March to 0.2% from 0.1%. Meanwhile, StatCan's estimate for May also showed a 0.1% contraction. The year over year trend "melted" to a rise of 1.3% from 1.8% and the build-in for Q2 real GDP is now running at a fall of 0.3% sequential annualized rate.

Rosenberg said: "There is something happening beyond the tariff file alone -- though the effects were seen in the sharp -0.9% pullback in industrial production -- because the services sector barely expanded and has all but stagnated since the turn of the year. Transportation services and wholesale trade are in a deep funk. So are building materials and clothing, the former tied to the housing market and the latter linked to the jobs cycle."

"The Bank of Canada," Rosenberg added, "would be well advised to remove its fixation on lagging inflation data and shift its focus to what the future will bring as the disinflationary output gap begins to widen again. The case for a July rate cut ... is pretty strong, but stepping on the gas pedal again will require that Tiff Macklem stop playing the dual role of deer in the headlights and ostrich with its head in the sand."

Elsewhere, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, also noted the TSX enters the summer at a record high, despite the ongoing trade war stress and a clear slowdown in economic growth. Among the reasons for the resilience he cited are expectations that a trade deal is looming; favorable valuations coming into the year; and the reality that the index isn't the best representation of the underlying Canadian economy.

What, Kavcic asks, has helped the TSX? He noted strength in gold has lifted TSX materials by more than 20% this year, the banks have performed well, pacing the broad index and consumer stocks have been firm. The only real drags, he noted, have been energy and health care. Kavic added: "BMO's strategy team continues to like Canadian equities given current valuations and a low earnings expectations bar. We just need some of this strength to bleed into the real economy"

Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on Monday as strong summer demand is offset by rising supply with OPEC+ readying to again raise output, adding 411,000 barrels per day to the market beginning on Tuesday, its fourth tranche of monthly production hikes. The group is said to be considering another same-sized tranche in August. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down $0.41 to settle at US$65.11 per barrel, while August Brent oil expired down $0.16 to US$67.61.

But gold traded higher late afternoon on Monday as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Gold for August delivery was last seen up $32.30 to US$3,319.90 per ounce.