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TSX Closer: Magnificent Monday For The TSX Finishing Up Over 312 Points
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TSX Closer: Magnificent Monday For The TSX Finishing Up Over 312 Points
May 6, 2024 1:38 PM

04:15 PM EDT, 05/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The TSX was back over the 22,200 mark on Monday, with all sectors higher, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index finishing the day up 312.06 points to 22,259.47 at the start of a busy week for earnings from Canada's corporate sector.

The biggest gainers on the day are batteries and info tech, each up 2.3%.

The TSX is up in 12 of the last 14 sessions, BNN TV noted, while pointing out 80 TSX-listed companies are due to file quarterly earnings this week.

Financials were among the sectors moving higher, gaining about 1%, and within that TD Bank (TD.TO) was up 0.44% at the close. Bloomberg News noted Monday that a veteran Canadian bank analyst says TD's role in an alleged money-laundering scheme has made the "worst-case scenario" more likely - a huge fine for the lender and years of restrictions on its U.S. growth.

The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating the bank over its ties to a US$653 million drug-money laundering case in New York and New Jersey, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg last week. The probe is focused on how Chinese crime groups used TD and other banks to hide money from U.S. fentanyl sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on May 2.

That's in addition to another case in which one of the bank's New Jersey branch employees was charged with accepting bribes to facilitate the laundering of drug money, the Bloomberg report says.

"With the bank allegedly a focal institution in a drug money-laundering scheme, the worst-case scenario has become more likely with TD potentially entering a lost decade," Jefferies analyst John Aiken said in a note to clients Monday. "Growth in the U.S. will likely be constrained and the timeline for a fix is extended by several years."

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Monday, but fell off session highs after the Hamas militant group said it accepts a cease-fire proposal put forward by Egypt for its war with Israel. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$0.37 to settle at US$78.48 per barrel, after earlier touching US$79.09, while July Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed up US$0.37 to US$83.33.

Gold prices rose on Monday as treasury yields weakened following Friday's weak U.S. jobs report, and gold for June delivery was last seen up US$24.60 to US$2,333.20 per ounce. The rise follows Friday's weak U.S. jobs data, which showed the country added 175,000 jobs last month, down from 315,000 new positions in March and under the consensus estimate for an increase of 240,000 jobs, according to Marketwatch.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) today published its Investment Strategy Report in which it provided an update on Commodity correlations versus stocks and bonds.

It said, "The rapid increase in correlation between equities and fixed income since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, which we believe will prove transitory, has not permeated to commodity correlations. We continue to believe that a broad exposure to commodities can offer investors diversification benefits that can help reduce portfolio volatility and improve the consistency of returns over time."

BMO noted Global equity markets were mixed last week, with the Nasdaq (+1.4%) and Dow (+1.1%) leading the way higher, while the CAC (-1.6%) and DAX (-0.9%) underperformed. The TSX was a touch softer, falling 0.1%. TSX sectors were mixed, with utilities (+4.3%) and telcos (+2.3%) at the top of the list, while materials (-2%) and energy (-1.9%) weighed. The weekly pullback trimmed the TSX's year-to-date gains to +4.7%.

BMO also noted: it's jobs week in Canada, with April employment coming up on Friday. We already saw a soft U.S. report last week, and Canada isn't expected to look any better. The unfriendly trend in the labor market likely persisted in April, as the economy continues to struggle under the weight of elevated interest rates. Population growth isn't likely to slow near-term, which means that anything short of about a 45k employment gain will push the jobless rate higher. Unfortunately, we're not expected to clear that hurdle for a seventh consecutive month, with a modest 15k job gain anticipated. The economy seems to have hit a wall in March, which was reflected in last month's modest job loss, and there's no reason to expect a meaningful improvement in April, BMO said.

BMO's call would push the jobless rate up another tick to 6.2%, the third consecutive monthly increase, and the highest level since 2017 (excluding the pandemic).

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