04:22 PM EDT, 10/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange posted yet another record finish Monday, the sixth-straight, even as Rosenberg Research said Canada's equity market looks "stretched and relatively overbought", but did also add its commodity model "remains solidly in the upper half of the 'neutral' range."

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 60 points, or 0.2%, to 30,531.88, buoyed by elevated commodity prices. Most sectors were higher, led by Energy and the Battery Metals Index, both up about 1.3%. Telecoms, Health Care and Industrials were lower, but none of them by more than 0.5%.

Market watchers now await a meeting of Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday. The pair are expected to talk trade and security amid an ongoing tariff dispute.

BMO Economics in an overnight note said this year's "trade turmoil" created a "tense and potentially combustible environment" heading into the upcoming review of the existing United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which must be held by July 2026. BMO estimates the potential economic impact of several stylized USMCA scenarios: in its "Muddle Through" scenario, tariffs remain close to current levels, yielding a slowdown in Canada and limited impact in the United Statess; in its "No Special Treatment" scenario, both sides implement material but moderate new tariffs, creating larger economic dislocations; and in its "Continental Divide" scenario, both sides erect large tariff walls, resulting in a recession in Canada and a material slowdown for the United States.

Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research in its latest 'Strategizer', a monthly guidebook for active investors, said its asset allocation tool retained an underweight equity/overweight bonds view heading into October, though it added the market for corporate credit looks "very stretched and far more expensive" than the stock market. According to the note, stock-market focus should remain on the overseas indices, while the 'Strategizer' model is taking -5 points out of both bonds, to 40% from 45%, and cash, to 5% from 10%, with the proceeds put into equities, which was raised to 55% from 45%.

Rosenberg Research said relative scores favor Europe and Asia over the United States and Canada, adding Strategizer's preference for ex-U.S. markets "fits the current macro policy environment". It noted Europe's score rose to 41.2 in September, up from 36.1 earlier, and added: "Peak values above 60.0 were recorded in January and April, which turned out to be well-timed signals to increase exposure on the back of the fiscal spending announcement hype. Since then, however, investors are in "wait and see" mode, reflected by a European model score that remains rangebound in "neutral" territory. Yet, Europe is still more compelling than the U.S. and Canadian indices, which look stretched and relatively overbought when sentiment, positioning, and technical indicators are considered."

On Canada's score, the research said a losing streak was extended for a fifth consecutive month, dropping deeper into underweight territory at 17.3 after an already low reading of 21.9 last month. It noted precious metals have provided strong support for Canadian stocks, which have climbed steadily in recent months. Still, it added, Strategizer highlights extreme values of technical and sentiment indicators pointing to overbought conditions compared to historical norms (contrarian negative).

Among Canadian sectors, Materials (gold miners), Financials, and Real Estate remain in the top rankings from the month prior, with the only change being a jump up in Energy to #3 from #6. Health Care, which ranked second last month, has now dropped to sixth.

Strategizer's commodity model "remains solidly in the upper half of the 'neutral' range", despite edging down slightly in September to 56.0 from 57.2 in August. The research said: "As we have been highlighting of late, valuations remain historically cheap and positioning is depressed (contrarian positives), offsetting demand concerns from the state of the global economy (though a supply squeeze in various segments of the metals space is acting as a powerful antidote). Crude oil ranks 5th, with supply concerns acting as a restraining force."

The gold model, the research said, eroded for the third month in a row and is flashing a near-term 'take profits' signal, which it just did in the Rosie Macro Fund. It added: "We remain long-term bullish on the yellow metal, but both sentiment and positioning scores remain at extreme levels (87th and 78th percentile readings, respectively), indicating that we are not alone in our bullish stance on the shiny yellow metal. The technical picture has also become extremely overbought (the corresponding model subindex jumped to a 94th percentile from 57th in August)."

Of commodities today, gold continued its record run up, approaching the US$4,000 mark even as the dollar and yields rose. Gold for December delivery was up $75.10 to US$3,984.00 per ounce.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a second day as OPEC+ on the weekend decided on a monthly production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, less than reports last week expected but still adding fresh supply to an already flush market. WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at $61.69 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to $65.36.