04:20 PM EDT, 06/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a gain on Monday after Friday's dip from a day-prior record close, as President Donald Trump on the first day of this year's G7 summit at an Alberta mountain resort, said he believes the United States and Canada can "work something out" to prevent an all-out trade war between the nations.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 64.26 points to 26,568.61. Gains on the resources heavy index were likely capped as commodity prices moved off recent high levels, even as BMO Capital Markets did publish a note recapping what happened in Q1, and since, with Canada's oil and gas exploration and production companies and referred to an "encouraging start" to 2025.
Among sectors, Base Metals and Information Technology were the biggest gainers, up 2.39% and 1.25%, respectively, followed by Financials, up 0.65%. The biggest decliner was Energy, down 0.85%.
Boosting sentiment, Trump began the summit wearing a Canada-U.S. pin on his suit, an indication that he is, at least for now, dropping his talk of annexation and threats to Canadian sovereignty.
Also, Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Canada-U.S. Trade on CBC TV just before the close of trade said he and his team met their U.S. counterparts and had agreed to continue talking about trade issues and meet again later this week. "I remain confident that we are making significant progress," he added.
Of commodities, gold fell off a record high, even as the dollar dropped, with safe-haven buying having eased amid low expectations that the Israel and Iran spat will lead to a wider conflict in the Middle East. Gold for August delivery was last seen down $46.80 to US$3,406.000 per ounce, after rising to a record US$3,452.80 on Friday.
Not helping sentiment around the gold sector, earlier today, a Mali court ordered that Barrick Mining's ( B ) Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex be placed under temporary administration for six months. Mali's junta government will appoint Soumana Makadji, a former health minister, as the provisional administrator. Barrick, which closed down, has said that it will appeal the decision.
National Bank said it believes a resolution in Mali without significant reduction in the overall ownership level and/or advancement of development at Reko Diq without significant disruptions/cost escalation are required to support an improved near-term outlook and associated multiple expansion for Barrick. "The headlines today suggest progress in Mali remains a challenge and until the market has improved clarity in a resolution, we suspect the current valuation discount to peers will persist," it added.
With oil, West Texas Intermediate crude fell off a four-month high as Israel and Iran traded blows for a fourth day, but showed no appetite for disrupting shipments from the Persian Gulf. WTI oi for July delivery closed down $1.21 to settle at US$71.77 per barrel after touching US$77.49 in overnight trade, while August Brent crude was last seen down $1.08 to US$73.15.
Still, the bottom line for BMO Capital Markets is the Canadian oil and gas sector reported better than expected first-quarter results, even as group performance "remained challenging" amid falling crude oil prices following 'Liberation Day', when Trump rolled out a plethora of tariffs that he promised would strengthen the U.S. position of the U.S. in global trade, and OPEC+ production increases.
BMO said this has led to reduced 2025 cash flow per share estimates across most of its Canadian coverage. But despite weaker oil prices, the bank added most companies maintained their capital programs, showcasing "robust" balance sheets and "capital-efficient" operations.
BMO noted oil prices have since rebounded due to geopolitical risk while Henry Hub natural-gas prices have remained strong. In Canada, BMO also noted, the Alberta gas trading price, AECO "C" spot, remained disconnected from other benchmarks, as the market waits for LNG Canada Phase 1 to solve the supply overhang. At the current strip, BMO projects its coverage group (excluding restricted names) will generate approximately $28.4 billion (8.4% yield) in free cash flow in 2025 and roughly $27.6 billion (8.4% yield) in 2026.