04:13 PM EST, 11/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange took a modest Monday loss as investors turn cautious ahead of the final day of voting in the U.S. election on Tuesday.

The S&P/TSX Composite down 0.90 points, wrapping up the start of the week at 24,256.06. The Telecoms sector was down the most, down 1.72%, followed by Health Care, down 0.62%, while Energy and Battery Metals are the biggest gainers, up 1.3% and 0.7%, respectively. Declining issues outpaced advancers 1,002 to 825 with 165 listing closing unchanged.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday after OPEC+ again delayed plans to increase production while geopolitical risk heightens as Iran promises fresh attacks on Israel and the U.S. election looms. WTI crude for December delivery closed up US$1.98 to settle at US$71.47 per barrel, while January Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed US$1.98 to US$75.08.

Gold edged lower late afternoon as traders turn cautious with the dollar and yields falling ahead of tomorrow's U.S. presidential election and this week's interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Gold for December delivery was last seen down US$2.60 to US$2,746.60 per ounce.

Rosenberg Research today noted tomorrow's U.S. election results are key for the markets. "Unlike in 2016," David Rosenberg said, "a Trump win this time doesn't catch anyone by surprise, but there is no doubt in my mind that a GOP sweep is good for stocks and bad for bonds -- as was the case in his first two years of one-party rule from 2016 to 2018."

Meanwhile, Rosenberg added, a Harris sweep is far worse for equities and "since her fiscal plan adds half to the national debt as the aggregation of all of Trump's policies, not to mention her intent to raise capital gains and corporate tax rates, that will surely dent the risk-on trade, and the bond bears are likely to be forced to cover their short positions.

"Either way," Rosenberg said, "what would really be good to see is a split government, so the most damaging aspects of both candidates don't get passed into law."

On that last point, Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) said the U.S. presidential election likely will be decided a by few thousand voters across a handful of swing states, and WFII expects the congressional races to produce divided leadership in Congress -- "in other words, our base case is for divided government."

WFII noted delayed election results have not been uncommon since 2000, and even in earlier decades, but it added initial market unease over such uncertainty tends to fade quickly as the economy reasserts itself as the main driver of inflation and expected earnings.