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TSX Closer: The Market Moves Lower on Growth Worries and Cooling Tensions
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TSX Closer: The Market Moves Lower on Growth Worries and Cooling Tensions
Oct 2, 2024 9:39 PM

04:25 PM EDT, 10/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Wednesday on cooling geopolitical worries checked resource prices amid concerns the economy is slowing

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 32.44 points to 24,001.55. Health Care and Telecoms are the biggest decliners, down 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively. Battery Metals and Information Technology were the biggest gainers, up 1.95% and 0.56%, respectively. Health Care and Telecoms posted the biggest decliners, down 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose second day on Wednesday on heightened worries over a spreading Middle Eastern war that could threaten Persian Gulf oil supplies, but surrendered most early gains after a report showed U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly rose last week. WTI crude for November delivery closed up US$0.27 to settle at US$70.10 per barrel, after earlier touching US$72.49, while December Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed up US$0.34 to US$73.90.

Gold traded lower late afternoon on Wednesday as traders chose to take profits following last week's record high while the dollar rose following Iran's day-prior missile attack on Israel. Gold for December delivery was last seen down US$10.60 to US$2,679.70 per ounce.

The price of both commodities calmed after Tuesday's missile attacks by Iran on Israel, which raised concerns Israel's war on Gaza and Lebanon will spread to the oil-rich Persian Gulf. While Israel and the United States say they plan to retaliate, no timing for any strikes on Iran has been offered.

Scotiabank on Wednesday said as inflation eases and economic activity slows, the Bank of Canada (BoC) seems to be shifting its priority from inflation control to worries about growth, which could prompt accelerated interest-rate cuts.

"Using a monetary policy reaction function that estimates the weight on inflation and the output gap over time, we find empirically that the Bank of Canada is now putting more weight on the output gap. This is a break from the last two years in which the estimated weight on inflation dominated that placed on the output gap. Our model suggests that as of 2024 Q4, the BoC will focus more on eliminating this economic slack than on fighting inflation," Scotiabank added.

Scotiabank currently thinks the BoC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at each of the two remaining meetings this year. But the bank sees a risk that Governor Macklem will be more aggressive than that if he is indeed putting more weight on growth going forward. That would translate into a risk of a 50 bps cut at one of these meetings, Scotiabank added.

Meanwhile, a survey commissioned by KPMG found chief executive officers in Canada are getting more concerned about the domestic economy, though most are still bullish on their own companies' prospects over the next few years, Bloomberg reported.

It noted almost 60% of Canadian CEOs say economic uncertainty is their biggest current challenge, slightly higher than the 53% of CEOs globally who said that. The proportion of top executives who expressed confidence in the three-year growth outlook for Canada's economy was 83%, a decline of six percentage points from last year, Bloomberg also noted.

Adding to this, Oxford Economics today said it expects growth in U.S. nonfarm employment will be stronger in September than August, but added it also thinks unemployment will edge higher. If Friday's report on balance is much weaker than expected, it could be enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower rates by another 50 bps at its November meeting, according to Oxford Economics.

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