04:07 PM EDT, 05/02/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange ended a two session losing streak in gaining 236 points on Friday as investors here hope that a planned meeting next week between Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, and the U.S. President, Donald Trump, will lead to a quick end to a brewing, and likely costly, trade war.

Today, the TSX closed up 0.95% at 25,031.51, its highest level in a month.

Among sectors, most here higher, led by Base Metals (+2.05%) and Industrials (+2.1%). Telecoms and Utilities were modest decliners.

During his first press conference since receiving the mandate to form a minority government following conclusion of his first federal election campaign last Monday, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Carney on Friday confirmed he will meet with Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

It is expected the two will discuss Trump's trade tariffs on Canada and talks could set the stage for negotiation of a new trade and security pact between the two nations.

Leading in to Tuesday's meeting, one Macquarie economist said there were "concerning" signs in Friday's U.S. employment report, noting the labor market "remains interlinked with trade policy". This may be the kind of report that prompts Trump to be more open in his talks with trading partners, including Canada.

David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said the U.S. labor market "remained on solid footing" through mid April, although this timing likely precedes any forthcoming impacts from trade policy uncertainty. He added: "While solid overall, there were some concerning signs. Most notably, a continued rise in the trends in the number of permanent job losers and unemployment amongst new entrants and re-entrants. While an encouraging result, it is much too soon to sound the all clear from the trade policy shock of recent months."

Doyle added: "Looking ahead the trajectory of the labor market remains interlinked with trade policy developments. A recent softening in measures against the auto market should help reduce downside risks, but overall uncertainty is likely to continue to be a near-term headwind."

Elsewhere, Douglas Porter over at BMO Economics in his regular Friday 'Talking Points' note noted there was "a morsel" of good news for Canada on the U.S. trade front as USMCA auto parts will be free of tariffs. He said: "While that's cold comfort for auto assemblers in Canada and Mexico, at least the two year parts reprieve will allow for a modicum of normalcy in U.S. production. Still, the new regime somewhat normalizes the broader tariffs on autos and threatens production in Canada. As one analyst put it, the parts reprieve is like a band aid on a bullet wound."

Porter added that he and his colleagues are "highly skeptical" that the, so far, positive tone between the two leaders will translate into a quick reversal of tariffs and counter tariffs. "The gap between Mr. Trump's goals (a shift in auto production from Canada to the U.S., as well as the bountiful tariff revenue) and Canada's are a bridge too far."

Aside from the fraught trade outlook, Porter noted the economic platform that PM Carney presented today was replete with measures to support the economy, from direct spending, to infrastructure and defence, to a cut in the lowest marginal tax rate, to an activist agenda for housing. Porter also noted this week's data showed an economy that managed to churn out 1.5% annualized GDP growth in Q1 even amid all the trade and political drama, and a similar pre-tariff burst in auto sales.

"Yet," Porter said, "financial markets largely yawned at the election results, with GoC yields barely budging for the week, the TSX just edging up, and the Canadian dollar seeing a late week pick up to 72.5 cents, largely due to a sag in the greenback. While the minority result was a small surprise, Canada has been dealing with such since 2019, and it is likely to prove a stable minority. After four months of seemingly unending uncertainty, markets willingly accepted that stability."

Of commodities, gold traded higher mid-afternoon on Friday following two days of losses as the dollar fell after a better than expected U.S. jobs report pushes investors to add risk. Gold for June delivery was last seen up $19.70 to US$3,241.90 per ounce.

But West Texas Intermediate oil closed with a loss on Friday despite signs of cooling trade tensions between the U.S. and China as supply is on the rise, with OPEC+ adding new barrels to the market as it winds down 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts. WTI crude closed down $0.95 to settle at US$58.29 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down $0.88 to US$61.25.