12:14 PM EDT, 08/16/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is flat at midday, after opening about 25 points lower. The index is still above the 23,000 level.

Oil prices slumped early on Friday on concerns over the health of China's economy and easing geopolitical worries.

But gold prices rose to a record as the dollar and yields fell on firming expectations the Federal Reserve is ready to begin lowering interest rates as U.S. inflation eases.

Natural gas edged lower as long-term forecasts cool.

North American equity markets have recovered in recent days as fears around a U.S. recession have eased, although they haven't altogether disappeared.

Rosenberg Research in its 'Early Morning with Dave' note today said everyone believes the U.S. economy is in a Goldilocks 'soft landing' state. But it added charts that, it says, smooth out the monthly "wiggles" and look at the trend on a YoY basis would suggest otherwise. It noted retail sales volumes (even with the June bounce), industrial production, and full-time employment are tracking -0.3%, -0.2% and -0.4% respectively.

The research added: "Just as the U.S. economy revealed its interest-rate insensitivity when the Fed tightened aggressively, expect the same thing to happen in the other direction, which is why we think that the Fed will be forced to go far further on rate cuts than is currently priced in, just as it hiked far more than anyone expected in the 2022-2023 tightening cycle."