12:11 PM EDT, 06/18/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The TSX is up 117 points with energy (+2.3%) and miners (+0.75%), posting the biggest gains.

Info tech, down 0.6%, is the biggest decliner.

Oil was mostly steady early on Tuesday after rising to a six-week high a day earlier on expectations for high summer demand while OPEC+ continues to limit supply.

Gold prices rose early after treasury yields fell and the dollar dropped off overnight highs as U.S. retail sales rose less than expected last month.

Natural gas traded higher as forecasts expect much hotter than seasonal temperatures for the Midwest and Northeast of the United States this week.

There was a mixed reaction among economists to the release of weaker than expected U.S. retail sales, although some equity market watchers may have been buoyed.

U.S. total retail sales in May rose 0.1% compared to expectations of a 0.3% gain, noted CIBC, which expects the first Fed interest rate cut in September, and another in December. Today's data "suggests the US consumer's voracious appetite could be normalizing," CIBC said. The pace of consumer spending has slowed this year after a very strong second half of 2023.

The Desjardins expectation remains that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2024.

For BMO Economics, the bottom line is that today's "solid" industrial production report partly offsets the softer tone in today's retail sales release and supports BMO's call for positive but subdued real GDP growth of around 1.5% annualized in Q2. "Should sub-potential growth translate into calmer inflation and employment reports (as it should) over the next three months, the stage could be set for a September Fed rate cut," it said.

But TD Economics was less optimistic on rate cuts. On the inflation front, while there is good news stemming from lower inflation readings in May, today's retail sales report is "unlikely to do much" to move the Fed's thinking with respect to the first rate cut, TD Economics said Tuesday, in noting retail spending was "only modestly positive", and the number was below expectations.

Of more interest to the Fed, TD added, is the fact that the improvement in inflation over the last two months was partially offset by a resurgence in payrolls in May combined with an acceleration in wage growth (average hourly earnings). TD expects the Fed will continue awaiting a consistent flow of data in support of lower inflation, with a rate cut unlikely before December.