12:20 PM EDT, 08/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 285 points to 23, 045, nearing the all-time high of 23,209.

All sectors are higher. The biggest gainers are miners (+4%) and info tech (+2.3%), followed by energy (+1.8%).

Oil prices rose early on Thursday, rebounding from day-prior losses that followed a report showing U.S. oil inventories rose last week, as expectations the Federal Reserve will be ready to cut interest rates next month firm while Middle East tensions continue.

But gold prices fell as the dollar and treasury yields surged following a report showing U.S. retail sales rose more than expected last month.

Natural gas was steady early on Thursday ahead of fresh storage data.

In terms of market moving data, TD noted U.S. retail sales started the third quarter on an upbeat note. Retail sales rose 1% for the month of July. That was much higher than the consensus forecast calling for a more moderate increase of 0.4%. However, June's figure was revised downward to -0.2% month/month (previously flat).

On key implications, TD said retail sales opened up the third quarter "on a better footing than it closed the second". The rebound, it added, suggests that despite mounting pressures on consumers' balance sheets (as savings dwindle and wage growth slows), the U.S. consumer is not out yet. But, it noted, consumer spending is still expected to slow as 2024 draws to a close.

TD said the rebound in spending in July is unlikely to materially alter the outlook for a September rate cut. "With employment continuing to slow and inflation more well-behaved in recent reports, it would take a much larger jolt from retail sales to alter the calculus for a cut. As such, for the remainder of the year we continue to expect three quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed."

For BMO, the bottom line is that the resiliency of the U.S. consumer was on full display in July. "Nonetheless" it said, "we expect real consumer spending growth to moderate in the second half of this year amid slower job growth, rising unemployment and record-high credit card debt."

Meanwhile, on the home front, TD noted Canadian existing home sales declined 0.7% month-on-month (m/m) in July, leaving them 9% below their pre-pandemic level. Nation-wide, sales were driven lower by declines in B.C. (-1.3% m/m), Quebec (-1.1%) and Ontario (-0.6%). The only monthly gains were recorded in parts of the Atlantic region.

TD said: "July was a subdued month for housing, even as borrowing costs declined. However, no one said home sales have to take a straight line higher, especially with rates still at multi-year highs last month.

"We view July's result as a speedbump on the way to a stronger second half showing for sales and prices amid a resilient economy, robust population growth, and falling rates. August's data will be telling, given that rates have continued their decline into this month."