12:18 PM EST, 01/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 65 points at midday with technology stocks (+1.2%) posting the biggest gains. Energy, up 1%, and industrials, up 0.9%, are the other notable gainers.

Utilities (-1%), is the biggest decliner.

Oil prices fell for a fifth day on Wednesday on concerns global growth will slow if Donald Trump starts a trade war by following through on threats to impose tariffs on imports from U.S. allies and adversaries.

But gold futures rose, climbing to the highest in more than a month as the dollar continues to slide. And natural gas prices rose as a polar vortex brings freezing temperatures to most eastern states and as far south as Texas, raising heating demand for the fuel.

BMO's Brian Belski has published a Canadian Strategy Snapshot entitled 'Focus on Fundamentals Over Trade Noise"

For Belski, the bottom line is that in BMO's view on US-Canada trade "consternation" has remained consistent since its December publication ('Trade Concerns = Control What You Can Control'). "Yes," Belski said, "from our perspective, the tariff threats were clearly just the opening volley of the USMCA renegotiations President Trump campaigned on -- thereby eliciting the intended reaction -- and more importantly (in our view), revealing significant information surrounding renegotiations."

Belski said while a 25% broad tariff on the United States' two largest trading partners is "even more unlikely now", BMO continues to believe some form of targeted tariffs could be imposed over the next several months, barring significant action and concessions by Canada. Overall, BMO believes, just like what happened in 2018, common sense will ultimately prevail and the USMCA will be renegotiated with the result generating a relatively minor impact on Canadian equities. "Indeed," Belski said, "investors should control what they can control and focus on the normalization process that is occurring and will continue to occur in 2025." BMO believes Canadian economic growth is ultimately tied to U.S. growth and will continue to converge with the U.S. in 2025 -- a view that has not changed. "YES, while this could add some volatility, we continue to believe the strong relative value and improving growth profile of the TSX means Canada can still outperform in 2025, despite persistent trade noise," he added.

Meanwhile, Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie, in a note asked himself why are traders ignoring Trump's new threat of tariffs? He answered his own questions by saying: "Perhaps because Trump has inverted Teddy Roosevelt's dictum about "speaking softly, and carrying a big stick" -- by shouting menacingly, yet deferring action. Moreover, the collective threats have become incoherent."

Threats of tariffs aside, Wizman said all or parts of Canada are much likelier to grow even closer to the U.S. in the next few years, rather than apart. That's as Canada's domestic politics, its foreign policy disposition, its border and immigration policies, and trade and capital account flows reflect aligned interests and a closer relationship, he added, noting a renegotiated USMCA would institute these changes. In a 'merger trend' context, USD-CAD will become much more stable going forward than it has been, and Macquarie would see USD-CAD drift lower, toward 1.35 at mid-year, according to Wizman.