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TSX up 94 Points at Midday, With Most Sectors Higher
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TSX up 94 Points at Midday, With Most Sectors Higher
Jan 20, 2025 9:41 AM

12:18 PM EST, 01/20/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up near 94 points at midday, with most sectors higher.

The biggest gainers are energy, up 1.4%, followed by healthcare, up 1%.

Monday's gains come despite mixed commodity prices and despite U.S. markets being closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, and also come amid uncertainty around a tariffs war with the United States once President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated.

Among commodities, oil moved higher early on Monday in electronic trade with markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday as traders await the inauguration of Trump.

But gold edged down early on Monday as the dollar traded sharply lower. Natural gas traded lower early on Monday as forecasts see milder weather on the way for much of the United States.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is planning to issue a broad memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China and America's continental neighbors -- but stops short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office, as many trading partners feared.

It said the presidential memo directs federal agencies to investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations, two longstanding Trump irritants. And it singles out China, Canada and Mexico for scrutiny, directing agencies to assess Beijing's compliance with its 2020 trade deal with the U.S., as well as the status of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, Trump's updated North American Free Trade Agreement, which is set for review in 2026.

The trade policy memo is an indication of debates still roiling the incoming administration over how to deliver on Trump's campaign trail promises for across-the-board tariffs on imports, and higher duties for adversaries such as China. (The Wall Street Journal reviewed a summary of the memo and spoke to Trump's advisers about it.)

BMO Economics in its morning note said equity markets rallied last week on a combination of strong U.S. economic data and a "tame-enough" core inflation print. The S&P 500 rose 2.9%, led by banks, energy and materials, while defensives lagged. Early earnings season results have been solid, led by a raft of upside surprises in financials. Meantime, the TSX rose a more modest 1.2%, as softness in energy and consumer staples offset a rally in banks.

Elsewhere, Edward Jones in its 'Weekly Markets Wrap' noted the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields briefly touched a 14-month high in the U.S. and a 6-month high in Canada before both retreating following "encouraging" U.S. inflation data. Core CPI unexpectedly edged lower to 3.2% from 3.3%, the first drop since July, providing relief to both stocks and bonds.

It said: "Against a backdrop of strong economic growth, a bumpy disinflation process, and policy uncertainty, the Fed is feeling no urgency to cut rates further, and investors have meaningfully scaled back their expectations for rate cuts this year. However, the bond sell-off might have gone too far.

"Without the Fed going back to tightening mode, we believe yields may not move sustainably higher from here. The BoC is further advanced in its easing cycle having moved rates to the upper end of its neutral target but will likely continue cutting at a slower pace."

Edward Jones said while interest rates impact valuations, the start of the earnings season is a good reminder of the influence that earnings have in driving the stock-market direction and returns. U.S. bank results point to a solid quarter for earnings. "Even though the Fed's path and the new U.S. administration's policies are uncertain, we think the reset in investor expectations over the past couple of months paves the way for the next leg higher in stocks. If yields stabilize, we could see a revival of the value, cyclical, small- and mid-cap outperformance that fizzled in early December." it added.

In terms of domestic economic news, CIBC noted today's Business Outlook Survey highlighted an improving picture for sales and investment, but with plenty of uncertainty regarding possible U.S. tariffs and enough spare capacity to still warrant further interest rate cuts.

Desjardins in a quick take on the BoC Business and Consumer Surveys for Q4 2024 said households and businesses were in a better mood in Q4 than they were earlier in the year. And, despite the threat of U.S. tariffs, investment intentions also looked healthier, with capital expenditure plans more widespread across firms. Desjardins also noted households' inflation expectations have largely normalized, but responses from businesses were more mixed.

According to Desjardins, the positive trends in consumer and business sentiment appear to hinge on further rate cuts. "As a result, we don't see these responses as derailing a 25 basis point rate reduction next week. These results also align with our view that the Bank of Canada is headed towards a 2.00% terminal rate early in 2026, even if US tariff policy takes a while to materialize. With inflation expectations normalizing, the door is open for the Bank of Canada to keep lowering rates in an attempt to push the unemployment rate down and absorb economic slack."

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