04:32 PM EDT, 03/12/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's main stock market, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), gained another 60-plus points on Tuesday, taking its gains for this week so far to a total of 100 points and the overall index up to near two year highs.
Tuesday's gains on the resources heavy index were achieved despite lower commodity prices and even as many market watchers now believe it will be July, maybe at the earliest, before the first rate cuts happen in North America, and that there may be fewer cuts than some expect.
Sentiment was boosted on gains for U.S. stock markets. But while most sectors were higher, only the Battery Metals Index rose by more than 1%. Both Utilities and Telecom fell, down by more than 1.1% and almost 0.9% respectively.
Of commodities today, gold closed down from a record high as the dollar and treasury yields rose after the United States reported inflation ran hotter than expected in February, raising doubts the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates as soon as June. Gold for April delivery closed down $22.50 to settle at US$2,166.10 per ounce, following seven-straight days of fresh record highs.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on the U.S. inflation data, while the Energy Information Administration and OPEC issued competing demand forecasts in their monthly outlooks. WTI crude for April delivery closed down $0.37 to settle at US$77.56 per barrel, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen down $0.34 to US$81.87.
In terms of data coming out that could impact the timing around expected rate cuts, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, noted that in today's U.S. CPI release both headline and core CPI were firm once again in February. Doyle noted core CPI was up 0.36% MoM, and the three-month average continues to show a rising trend with this measure now the strongest since May 2023. Core goods was up 0.1% MoM, the first monthly rise since May 2023. Doyle said these data point towards a "relatively firm" core PCE number for February of approximately up 0.3% MoM. Data from the PPI release later this week will provide further insight on this front, he added. Macquarie's FOMC view is unchanged on this release, and its base case is for a first cut in July, 50 bps of easing in 2024, and a further 50 bps in 2025.