* Political risk rattles Turkey's financial markets
* Sharp drop on stock market triggers halt in trading
* Bonds see biggest sell-off since March
By Marc Jones
LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - Trading on Turkey's stock
market was halted and government bonds fell sharply on Thursday
after one of the country's top courts dealt the latest blow to
the main political opposition party.
The court annulled the Republican People's Party congress in
2023 at which its chairman, Ozgur Ozel, was elected. This
fuelled a 6% drop in Turkey's BIST 100 equity index
which triggered a market-wide circuit breaker.
Turkish sovereign bonds sold off by as much as 1.4 cents
, which for many was the
biggest fall since late March, after the ruling.
Kieran Curtis at fund manager Aberdeen in London said the
court ruling to replace Ozel with the CHP's former, less popular
chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu, could signal early elections.
While the record-low lira, which has effectively
been on a managed descent for years, remained steady, the
U.S.-traded iShares MSCI Turkey ETF slumped almost 10%
and the cost of debt insurance through credit default swaps
rose.
Curtis said the chances of early elections had been rising
given the Iran war-driven spike in inflation that has all but
closed the door on interest rate cuts and a stimulus drive that
could have been vote winners for President Tayyip Erdogan.
"Erdogan would much rather run against Kilicdaroglu than
anyone else in the CHP, so it would be consistent with a
scenario where they go for early elections," Curtis said.
Hours before the court ruling, finance minister Mehmet
Simsek, architect of Turkey's return to more orthodox economic
policies in recent years, had attended an investor event in
London alongside Turkish central bank governor Fatih Karahan.
Turkish bonds have underperformed the main Emerging Market
bond indexes this year and domestic 10-year yields, a proxy for
the government's borrowing costs, are at a record 33% high.
Thomas Christiansen, head of EM fixed income at UBP, said
Turkey's bond markets have tended to ride out these kinds of
politically driven moves in recent years.
"If you do get massive protests on the streets and social
unrest you could have a more sizable or longer-lasting impact,"
Christiansen said, adding: "But it's too soon to tell".