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Update: US Equity Indexes Fall This Week as Rate Cut Bets Surge, Treasury Yields Sink on Weak Economic Data
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Update: US Equity Indexes Fall This Week as Rate Cut Bets Surge, Treasury Yields Sink on Weak Economic Data
Aug 2, 2024 2:21 PM

04:52 PM EDT, 08/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- (Updates with latest VIX reading.)

US equity indexes closed lower this week amid a spike in volatility as concern the economy is in a steep slowdown tripled bets in favor of a 50 basis-point interest-rate cut in September, while a rotation out of technology continued.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 39,737.26 on Friday, down from 40,589.34 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 16,776.16 versus 17,357.88 a week prior. The S&P 500 closed at 5,346.56, compared with 5,459.10 a week earlier.

* Technology was the worst-performing sector over a week and month amid disappointing quarterly results from Intel ( INTC ) and Arm Holdings ( ARM ) , and less than stellar from Microsoft ( MSFT ) . Amazon ( AMZN ) , another heavyweight, also underwhelmed.

* Treasury yields were plunging late Friday, with the 10-year at 3.8%, the lowest since December, and the two-year rate at 3.88%, its weakest since January, as notably weak macroeconomic data hit the risk sentiment.

* Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 114,000 in July, while the consensus was 175,000 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Job gains were revised downward by 27,000 for June and 2,000 for May. The unemployment rate ticked higher in July.

* The Institute for Supply Management's US manufacturing index surprisingly fell, sinking deeper into contraction.

* US weekly initial jobless claims rose significantly more than forecast to, as per a D.A. Davidson note, the highest level in one year.

* "We continue to see three [rate] cuts this year, starting in September, informed by our core PCE forecasts that reach a three-month annualized pace of 2.1% ahead of the meeting," Morgan Stanley said. "Inflation continues to move convincingly lower, and the Fed cuts every meeting through mid-2025."

* The CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX), known as the fear gauge, surged 25% after market close, but scaled to a 52-week high once intraday, the day on which the CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 50 basis point cut at 72% compared with 22% the previous day.

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