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US Equity Indexes Extend Last Week's Declines as Inflation Looms
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US Equity Indexes Extend Last Week's Declines as Inflation Looms
Mar 11, 2024 10:26 AM

01:05 PM EDT, 03/11/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes fell after midday on Monday as investors awaited the February inflation data to confirm whether the increase in the previous month's reading was just a one-off.

The S&P 500 slid 0.2% to 5,114.3 with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.2% to 16,057.6 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fractionally lower at 38,714.3, following declines last week for all three benchmarks. Materials and energy led the gainers, while real estate and industrials were among the decliners intraday.

With the Q4 earnings season closing, the focus will be on macroeconomics this week, a research note from D.A. Davidson said. S&P 500 earnings rose 4.2% in Q4 from a year earlier, exceeding the consensus for 0.8% growth as of Dec. 31. Almost all of the S&P constituents have reported.

January inflation data, released last month, showed consumer and producer prices higher than forecast, eroding market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as early as March. February's consumer price index is due Tuesday, and the producer price index on Thursday.

"Was January's surge just a flash in the pan?" Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said in a note. Tuesday's core CPI reading for February will help inform this debate. It's the last CPI print before the Federal Open Market Committee's rate-setting meeting this month and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections, including a refreshed dot plot, he added.

Goldman Sachs expects a fall in the inflation rate in February because the January effect and noise in owners' equivalent rent boosted the previous month's print. "Our forecast implies a step down in core services ex-rent and OER," implying a decline in year-over-year core CPI.

The latest inflation figures could provide cues on the Fed's monetary policy path, the D.A. Davidson note said. The probability of the Fed's easing cycle beginning in June is 59% versus 42% a month ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose less than one basis point to 4.09%, and the two-year climbed 4 basis points to 4.53%.

In economic news Monday, state-level data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the unemployment rate rose in four states in January, fell in two states, and held steady elsewhere.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.2% to $78.18 per barrel intraday.

In company news, Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) said Sunday it expects deliveries of Boeing's ( BA ) 737 Max 10 planes will be delayed to as late as 2027 due to federal safety and criminal reviews of the airplane manufacturer, Bloomberg News reported. Boeing ( BA ) shares declined 2.9%, the biggest decline on the Dow. Delta Air shares were down 0.5%.

Gold for April delivery on the Comex rose 0.1% to $2,187.1 per troy ounce. Silver rose 0.4% to $24.66 per troy ounce.

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