01:44 PM EDT, 09/16/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes traded mixed on Monday as consumer discretionary and technology fell amid traders pricing in a higher probability of a bigger, 50 basis-point interest-rate cut this week in what will be the Federal Reserve's last policy announcement before the US presidential elections.

The S&P 500 index was up less than 0.1% to 5,628.5, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.7% to 17,551.4 after midday on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 41,524.6.

Except for consumer discretionary and technology, all other sectors rose intraday. Chipmakers such as Arm Holdings ( ARM ) , Micron Technology (MU), and Broadcom ( AVGO ) were among the steepest decliners.

Treasury yields fell intraday, with the 10-year yield down 2.4 basis points to 3.63%, and the two-year rate was 2.3 basis points lower at 3.55%.

The probability of a 50 basis-point cut on Sept. 18 stood at 59% on Monday afternoon versus 30% a week ago, as per the FedWatch Tool. The remaining 41% likelihood was a 25 basis-point drop versus 70% a week earlier. The Federal Open Market Committee's policy announcement will be the last before the Nov. 5 presidential elections.

Up-sizing rate cuts could signal to the market that the Fed is "really worried" about something in the US economy, Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said in a note, while adding that the jobs data has been soft and core inflation although "little mixed" is still easing. He said gross domestic product grew 3% in Q2, and the 'nowcast' efforts by the Atlanta Federal Reserve and New York Federal Reserve rest around 2.5% for Q3.

"The soft landing we've always expected continues to unfold," Holt said. The Scotiabank house view is for a 25 basis-point rate reduction as there isn't "such a case for acting in a rush."

In economic news, the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 11.5 in September from minus 4.7 in August, compared with an improvement to minus 4 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The September print is the first positive reading since November 2023 and signals a return to expansion.

In company news, Intel ( INTC ) has officially qualified for up to $3.5 billion in US government funding to make semiconductors for a secret military program, Bloomberg News reported. Shares of the chipmaker jumped nearly 3% intraday, among the top gainers in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow.

Melius Research upgraded Oracle (ORCL) to buy from hold, while raising its price target to $210 from $155. Oracle shares were trading over 5% higher intraday, the top performer on the S&P 500.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures jumped 2% to $70.05 a barrel.

Gold fell 0.1% to $2,608 an ounce, while silver rose less than 0.1% to $31.12.