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US Equity Indexes Rise This Week as Volatility Ebbs After Inflation, Retail Sales Signal Soft Landing
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US Equity Indexes Rise This Week as Volatility Ebbs After Inflation, Retail Sales Signal Soft Landing
Aug 16, 2024 2:05 PM

04:38 PM EDT, 08/16/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes rose this week as economic concerns dissipated after inflation and retail sales supported prospects for a soft landing.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40,659.76 on Friday, up from 39,497.54 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite rose to 17,631.72 from 16,745.3 a week earlier, and the S&P 500 climbed to 5,554.25 from 5,344.16.

* The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined 2.6% to 14.85 late Friday, continuing to retreat from the 65-level intraday breach after July's nonfarm payrolls signaled a hard economic landing and the so-called yen carry trade unwound. "VIX has now achieved two records over the last week -- the fastest 25-plus point spike from lows, and now the fastest retracement from that spike in history," according to a UBS note.

* The two-year Treasury yield, which is said to align closely with Fed policy, is set to close the week higher as macroeconomic data showed the consumer may be down but not out. The 10-year yield was shy of its close last week.

* July's inflation data released on Tuesday and Wednesday showed moderating price pressures, signaling a soft economic landing for the Federal Reserve needs to cut, but not slash, interest rates. US retail sales for the month came in higher than expected on Thursday, and the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July beat market forecasts on Friday.

* The probability of a 50 basis-point US interest-rate cut on Sept. 18 fell to 26% by late Friday afternoon from 51% a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The likelihood is for a 25 basis-point cut.

* Nothing in the July CPI will prevent the Fed from cutting 25 basis points, "though the firmer-than-expected shelter measures are a reminder that the Fed should continue to approach this easing cycle with caution," Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons said in a note.

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