01:27 PM EST, 11/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes fell amid a decline in government bond yields and the dollar as an influential poll called into question a growing narrative that the 2024 elections would return former President Donald Trump to The White House.

The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1% to 5,725.1 after midday Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.4% to 41,866.3 and the Nasdaq Composite retreated less than 0.1% to 18,233.7. Energy was the top gainer intraday coupled with real estate. Utilities led the decliners along with communication services.

The US Dollar index dropped 0.4% to 103.85 by early Monday afternoon, giving up some gains from the Trump trade. Similarly, most US Treasury yields declined intraday, with the 10-year down 6.6 basis points to 4.33% and the two-year rate 3.1 basis points lower at 4.19%.

A "highly anticipated" Selzer De Moines Register Iowa poll released Saturday showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in a state where polling averages have Trump nine points ahead, a note from Deutsche Bank said.

"Many political commentators had been waiting for this poll as it has one of the best track records amongst pollsters, with FiveThirtyEight describing Selzer as 'the best pollster in politics'," Jim Reid, head of the global fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank, said in the note.

Last weekend, Trump had a winning probability of 61% on PredictIt versus 52% on Friday and 48% on Saturday, while slightly rebounding Monday morning to 51%, the Deutsche Bank note said. On Polymarket.com, Trump was as high as 67% on Wednesday but this probability dropped to around 59% on Friday and, over the weekend, fell further to 53% before edging up to 56% early Monday. A Republican sweep is now at 39%, having been as high as 49% last Tuesday, the note added.

Meanwhile, in economic news, new orders for US factory goods fell 0.5% in September, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, and after a revised 0.8% decrease in August. Excluding a 3.1% drop in transportation orders, new orders would have been 0.1% higher after a 0.2% decline in August.

In company news, Nvidia's ( NVDA ) shares rose 1.7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said Nvidia ( NVDA ) will replace Intel ( INTC ) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average effective Friday. Intel ( INTC ) shares slumped 3.1% intraday, among the worst performers on the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 3% to $71.25 a barrel.

OPEC+, the world's largest cartel of crude oil producers, agreed Sunday to delay a plan to begin returning 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts by a month to January, a second deferral from the original October target.

"With continued uncertainty around 2025's demand outlook, the pause decision is consistent with the leadership's June pledge to remain prudent about production decisions and to avoid sudden shocks," Helima Croft, head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note. "Concerns that OPEC was poised to oversupply a fragile market have been weighing significantly on sentiment."

Gold slipped 0.2% to $2,744.01 an ounce, and silver fell 0.1% to $32.58 an ounce.