Dec 10 (Reuters) - A lower rung of U.S. junk bonds is
set to deliver its best returns in eight years in 2024,
underscoring a significantly higher risk-return payoff for
investors dabbling in speculative assets this year.
Returns on CC-rated debt, two rungs above D - meaning in
default, have surged nearly 48% this year, a far cry from 83% in
2016 but nearly three times higher than last year, according to
data from Morningstar Direct.
In comparison, investment-grade credit has generated returns
between 3% and 5% this year, while other junk bond tiers have
yielded returns between 7% and 15%.
Investment-grade bonds are generally perceived to be safer,
but their lower risk and greater stability mean lower returns
than often illiquid high-yield bonds.
This year's outperformance by high-yield bonds has been
driven by stronger corporate profitability and a soft economic
landing that has kept default rates near historic lows and
supported strong recovery rates, Bob Michele, global head of
fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, said.
"It has been a very good year for credit," Michele told the
Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF).
"Areas that stood out to us were the performance of bank
debt, especially AT1, and the performance of high yield," he
added. AT1, or additional tier one bonds, are designed to act as
shock absorbers that can be written off or converted into equity
if a bank's capital levels fall below a certain threshold,
providing a cushion at times of market turmoil.
Despite record-tight spreads in corporate bond markets,
asset managers remain bullish on U.S. fixed income, bolstered by
President-elect Donald Trump's election victory and the
Republicans' control of the House and Senate, which are expected
to reinforce pro-growth policies and further support risk
assets.
"Spreads across risky assets are extremely tight and worth a
second look for investors, but the favourable growth and labour
market environment have continued to make it difficult for
investors to step away," Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. rates
strategist at TD Securities, told the GMF.
The ICE BofA high-yield index, which tracks the performance
of junk bonds, has hit record highs above 1,736 this
week and is heading for a rise of 9.7% in 2024.
(Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger, for live
interviews: https://lseg.group/3KFHrhe)