July 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped over 4% to a seven-week low on Friday, as rising output and ample gas

supply in storage outweighed support from forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.5 cents, to settle at $2.319

per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract was heading for its biggest weekly loss since mid-February, down 10.7%.

"Much of the price plunge of the past 3-1/2 weeks has related to an announced production increase by a major U.S. producer

that appears to have contributed to a lift in output that has overshadowed the weather factor that still appears tilted in a

bullish direction," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. It did not identify the producer.

"A broad cool-down across a large chunk of the nation's mid-continent appears to be weighing on spot pricing with an expected

warmup later next week pushed to the sidelines so far as a price motivator."

Financial company LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day

(bcfd) in July.

That was up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May as many producers reduced drilling

activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in

December 2023.

With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to increase to

106.8 bcfd next week, from 105.9 bcfd this week.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday indicated utilities added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas

into storage during the week ended June 28, in line with analysts' forecasts in a Reuters poll. That compares with an increase of

76 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 69 bcf for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles were now about 19% above normal for this time of year.

"As the air-conditioning load and the heat for July and August kick in, I think we should eventually see higher prices," said

Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), power-grid operator for most of the state, said peak demand this week will

approach but not break the record for July as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave.

Meanwhile, in Europe, gas prices were largely flat with a small rise in demand balanced by Norwegian gas flows, though

uncertainty over supplies later in the year offered some support.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

June 28 June 21 June 28 average

Actual Actual June 28

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +32 +57 +76 +69

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,134 3,102 2,859 2,638

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 18.8% 20.7%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year

Last Year Average Average

2023 (2018-2022)

Henry Hub 2.36 2.43 2.64 2.66 3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.50 10.37 9.58 13.04 14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.42 12.56 11.44 14.39 14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 2 2 3 3 4

U.S. GFS CDDs 262 255 226 209 199

U.S. GFS TDDs 264 257 229 212 203

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year

Week Last Year (2019-2023)

Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102 102.1 101.8 103.3 95.5

U.S. Imports from Canada 8.1 7.2 7.0 N/A 7.8

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total U.S. Supply 110 109.3 108.8 N/A 112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 1.7 1.4 1.5 N/A 2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 6.8 6.9 N/A 6.1

U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 13.0 13.0 13.0 8.6

U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5

U.S. Residential 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.6

U.S. Power Plant 41.9 47.8 48.4 44.9 43.3

U.S. Industrial 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.2 21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 78.5 84.7 85.5 81.0 79.9

Total U.S. Demand 99.2 105.9 106.8 N/A 96.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

July 5 June 28 June 21 June 14 June 7

Wind 10 9 12 9 11

Solar 6 5 6 6 6

Hydro 6 5 6 7 7

Other 1 1 1 1 1

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 42 43 40 41 41

Coal 17 19 18 16 15

Nuclear 18 17 17 19 19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 2.02 2.06

Transco Z6 New York 1.44 1.33

PG&E Citygate 2.80 2.83

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.34 1.34

Chicago Citygate 1.54 1.58

Algonquin Citygate 1.45 1.43

SoCal Citygate 2.04 2.20

Waha Hub 1.89 -2.06

AECO 0.63 0.53

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England 28.00 30.50

PJM West 41.00 42.50

Ercot North 31.00 27.25

Mid C 114.67 41.12

Palo Verde 85.50 66.00

SP-15 54.00 58.25