WASHINGTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales
unexpectedly fell in July after recent strong gains that were
fueled by large tax refunds, but consumer spending is likely to
remain supported by rising wealth from the stock market even as
households are increasingly sensitive to higher prices.
Retail sales dropped 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.2%
gain in June, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on
Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales,
which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation,
edging up 0.1%. Estimates ranged from a 0.5% drop to a 0.7%
increase.
Generous tax refunds this year helped to soften the blow
from higher gasoline prices stemming from the Middle East
conflict, resulting in robust consumer spending in the second
quarter. Those refunds have been exhausted, economists said.
Last month's decline in retail sales was also payback after
Amazon pulled forward its Prime Day event to June from July,
with other retailers offering competing promotions. Gasoline
prices also fell last month, weighing on receipts at services
stations. Auto manufacturers reported a decline in unit sales.
With a stock market rally boosting household wealth, economists
believed that the weakness in retail sales would be temporary.
The S&P 500 index has risen 14% this year.
Economists at PNC Financial said an analysis of bank data
showed households in July appeared more sensitive to
rising gasoline prices than they were earlier this year,
creating what they said was a less supportive backdrop for
spending in the second half of the year. But they said it was
"difficult to envision a scenario where spending truly rolls
over," given the rise in household wealth.
"We see increasing evidence of upper-income and older
households cashing in on wealth gains to support spending," they
wrote in a note.
Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials
and food services fell 0.4% last month after a downwardly
revised 0.4% increase in June. Economists had forecast these
so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with
the consumer spending component of gross domestic product,
rising 0.3% after a previously reported 0.5% increase in June.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds
of the economy, increased at a 3.2% annualized rate in the
second quarter. The economy grew at a 1.5% pace last quarter.