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US STOCKS-US stock futures fall as escalating Iran conflict dims rate-cut hopes
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US STOCKS-US stock futures fall as escalating Iran conflict dims rate-cut hopes
Mar 23, 2026 2:36 AM

(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock

markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window.)

* Futures down: Dow 0.50%, S&P 500 0.63%, Nasdaq 0.72%

Mar 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on

Monday as the Middle East conflict intensified with energy

infrastructure under threat, sending oil prices surging and

pushing investors to reprice U.S. interest rate cut

expectations.

Iran will attack Israel's power plants and plants supplying

U.S. bases in the Gulf if U.S. President Donald Trump carries

out his threat to "obliterate" Iran's power network, the

country's Revolutionary Guards said in a statement.

Oil prices rose again, with U.S. crude futures up 3%

to over $100 a barrel, reviving inflation fears and putting

central banks in a tough spot with regard to monetary policy.

Investors swiftly dialed back expectations of Federal

Reserve interest rate cuts last week, not pricing any easing

this year, compared with two cuts before the war broke out, as

per CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

They also see a more than 50% chance of a rate hike in the

latter half of the year, compared with bets for tighter policy

at the beginning of last week. The repricing was partially aided

by a hawkish tone struck by the Fed at its meeting last week,

where it projected higher inflation and a single reduction in

rates in 2026.

"If oil and gas prices remain at current levels for the rest

of the year, central banks will have to weigh the pros and cons

of rate cuts versus hikes. If the war ends by June..., there is

little reason for central banks to hike rates in 2026," said Ed

Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.

At 04:43 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 230 points,

or 0.5%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 41.25 points, or

0.63%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 174.25 points,

or 0.72%.

The CBOE Volatility Index - Wall Street's fear gauge

- hit its highest level in two weeks and was last up 3.37 points

at 30.15.

Energy stocks in the U.S. gained in premarket trading, with

Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and Chevron ( CVX ) adding about 1% each and

Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ) up 1.5%.

Wall Street's main indexes marked their fourth week of

declines on Friday, with the Nasdaq logging its biggest weekly

drop since early February.

The small-cap Russell 2000, sensitive to higher

interest rates, ended over 10% below its record close of January

22 on Friday, confirming it had been in correction territory.

Futures tracking the index were down 1.2% on Monday.

In an otherwise data-light week, investors will parse

through business activity surveys and consumer sentiment

readings this week.

Among individual stocks, Synopsys ( SNPS ) gained 2% before

the bell, after activist investor Elliott Investment Management

built a multibillion-dollar investment in the electronic design

automation firm.

U.S.-listed shares of precious metal miners slid tracking a

slide in gold and silver prices. Newmont ( NEM )

dropped 6.1%, Barrick Mining ( B ) lost 5.4% and

Endeavour Silver ( EXK ) shed 7.8%.

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