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Harris leads, Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows

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Nvidia ( NVDA ) up on inclusion to the Dow Jones Industrial Average

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Russell 2000 outperforms, benefiting from lower bond

yields

(Updated at 4:00 p.m. ET/ 2000 GMT)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed slightly

lower after a choppy session on Monday, as investors prepared

for a crucial week in which Americans will elect a new president

and the Federal Reserve will announce its policy statement.

Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both

scrambled for an edge in the last full day of a race that polls

show as extremely close. It could take days to determine the

victor.

Some of the so-called "Trump trades" unwound after a recent

poll showed Harris, the Democratic vice president, leading in

Iowa, sparking a drop in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields

and bitcoin. Trump Media & Technology Group ( DJT )

closed sharply higher, bouncing back from early losses

of nearly 6%.

In light of the Iowa poll, Harris' odds against the

Republican former president improved on several betting sites,

which many market participants eye as election indicators.

"Since we're going to take until Thursday or so, at least,

to figure out who won, unfortunately this is going to be a

pretty volatile week," said Sam Stovall, chief investment

strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

"Earnings are going well, the Fed is still likely to cut

interest rates, the only true uncertainty is the election, and

hopefully that will be finalized sooner rather than later so

investors can go back to investing."

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500

lost 15.02 points, or 0.26%, to end at 5,713.78 points,

while the Nasdaq Composite lost 56.99 points, or 0.31%,

to 18,182.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

fell 250.91 points, or 0.60%, to 41,801.28.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last off about 5

basis points (bps), after initially dropping as much as 10 bps.

Volatile trading was expected until the election is decided and

investors are clearer on government policy. The 10-year yield

had fallen for five straight months before surging more than 48

bps in October.

The Russell 2000 rose as falling yields supported

small cap stocks, seen as more likely to benefit from lower

rates.

CBOE's Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street's

"Fear Gauge," ticked slightly below the 22 mark but remained

above its long-term average of 19.46 and hovered close to a

near-two month high hit last week of 23.42.

Investors were largely pricing in a Fed interest rate cut of

25 bps at its policy announcement on Thursday, with CME's

FedWatch Tool showing markets pricing in a 98% chance of a cut,

with only a 2% chance the central bank keeps rates steady.

The biggest gainer among the 11 major S&P sectors was energy

, up about 2% as oil prices climbed after OPEC+ decided

to delay plans for an output increase.

Chip heavyweight Nvidia ( NVDA ) advanced. On Friday, S&P

Dow Jones Indices said the company would replace Intel ( INTC )

in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Intel ( INTC ) shares slipped to

weigh on the Dow.

Hotel operator Marriott International ( MAR ) lost ground

after cutting its 2024 profit forecast on weak domestic travel

demand in the U.S. and China.

Constellation Energy ( CEG ) was the worst performer on the

S&P 500, tumbling after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

on Friday rejected an agreement to increase the power capacity

of an Amazon data center connected directly to Talen Energy's ( TLN )

nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania. The decision weighed on the

utilities sector, which fell more than 1%.