NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - An options strategy that
bets on individual stocks logging larger-than-expected moves
after corporate results was winning big this earnings season but
is among many that has been derailed by this week's volatility
spike.
The strategy involves buying options straddles - which
combine a put and a call options purchase - on shares of a
company ahead of its earnings report. Data from ORATS showed the
strategy worked especially well in the two weeks prior to this
one, when post-earnings stock moves tended to be larger than
what was priced in the options.
But a burst of dizzying stock turbulence earlier this week
caused the prices of the options to rise, making it more
difficult for traders to realize a profit. It was one several
strategies - including short volatility and dispersion trading
strategies - that thrived in calm markets but were thrown
off-kilter when U.S. economic worries and the unwinding of a
global yen-funded carry trades shook stocks this week.
"The rule of thumb is that earnings straddles are more
profitable when the volatility is low," ORATS founder Matt
Amberson said. "When there are more macro events ... then the
earnings move tends to be less than is expected by the market
straddles. A good example is this earnings season."
For the first week of earnings, shares of companies that
reported results, on average, swung 21% more than that implied
by options, making buying options straddles a winner 56% of the
time, the data showed.
For the subsequent two weeks, the stocks of reporting
companies moved 62% and 33% more than what options straddles had
priced, delivering win rates of 62% and 58%, respectively.
This week, however, stock swings for reporting companies
came in at only 86% of the move priced in options straddles,
dragging down the win rate for the strategy to 50%, the lowest
for any week this earnings season, ORATS data as of Wednesday
showed.