NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - A reassuring economic
outlook and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are
encouraging investors to look beyond the massive growth and
technology stocks that have fueled the U.S. stock market's gains
over the past year.
Though rallies in stocks such as Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Meta
Platforms ( META ) have been the market's main individual
drivers in 2024, the financials, industrials
and energy sectors are also outperforming the S&P 500's
9.7% year-to-date gain. That has eased worries that the market
was becoming increasingly tied to the fortunes of a small group
of stocks.
A belief that the economy will remain resilient while
inflation fades has prompted investors to look for winners
outside of the megacaps. That view received a boost from the Fed
earlier this week, when the central bank expressed confidence it
would be able to tamp down inflation and cut interest rates this
year, even as it raised its forecast for how much the U.S.
economy will grow.
"There is more confidence that the Fed is going to be able
to ... get inflation approaching their longer-term targets
without a recession," said Scott Chronert, head of U.S. equity
strategy at Citi, which is overweight the technology, financial
and industrial sectors. "You are going to take a little bit more
comfort that you can own a bank or an industrial if you think
the Fed is going to lower rates at some point here."
Investors in the coming week will be watching Friday's
personal consumption expenditures price index that will offer
the latest read on inflation. The end of the first quarter also
could prompt volatility as fund managers adjust their
portfolios.
The broadening rally contrasts with last year, when
uncertainty over the economic outlook prompted investors to seek
shelter in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of megacap
stocks, drawn by their dominant industry positions and strong
balance sheets. Only the sectors that housed megacaps - tech
, communication services and consumer
discretionary - outperformed the S&P 500's 24% gain
last year.
This year, the financial and industrial sectors are up 10.1%
and 9.9%, respectively, while energy has gained 10.3%.
More broadly, the Magnificent Seven - Apple ( AAPL ), Nvidia ( NVDA )
, Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft ( MSFT )
, Meta Platforms ( META ) and Amazon.com ( AMZN ) - have
been responsible for 40% of the S&P 500's gain as of Thursday,
according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That compares with a share
of over 60% last year.
The wider rally "means that leadership isn't so concentrated
and susceptible to a correction," said Robert Pavlik, senior
portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.
After the Magnificent Seven all posted huge gains in 2023,
performance among them has diverged more this year, giving
investors another reason to look at the rest of the market.
Enthusiasm over artificial intelligence has helped fuel a
90% gain in shares of Nvidia ( NVDA ) so far this year, while Microsoft ( MSFT )
has gained 14.5%. On the other side of the ledger, Apple ( AAPL ) and
Tesla are down about 11% and 32%, respectively, for the year.
The latest blow for Apple ( AAPL ) came this week when the Department
of Justice alleged the iPhone maker monopolized the smartphone
market, highlighting the regulatory risks that could make
investors wary of Big Tech.
In another sign of broadening, more S&P 500 stocks are
outperforming the benchmark, 180 so far this year as of Thursday
versus 150 last year.
Some corners of the market, such as small caps, still look
subdued. The Russell 2000, which is focused on smaller
companies, is up just 2.2% year-to-date.
Some investors believe the group could get a boost from the
Fed's outlook, which kept in place a previous forecast of three
25 basis-point interest rate cuts, despite the central bank's
upgraded growth projections.
"As the Fed starts to lower interest rates, that creates
liquidity and makes financing easier," said Jack Ablin, chief
investment officer at Cresset Capital. "Who's most advantaged?
Not the megacap stocks that have unfettered access to capital no
matter what rates are, but really the smaller, lesser-known
names."
The broadening trend could take a hit if the economy begins
floundering or runs too hot, upsetting the so-called Goldilocks
narrative that has supported markets in recent months.
Some investors also believe the market is due for a pullback
after a run in which the S&P 500 has gained 27% since late
October.
Others, however, are betting the trend will continue. Peter
Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, said his firm
recently purchased shares of Goldman Sachs ( GS ) and oil
services company Tidewater while reducing its megacap
holdings, including selling its Apple ( AAPL ) stake.
"The market is broadening out," he said. "You're just seeing
that there's more ways to make money this year than the Mag 7."