NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Economic concerns are once
again showing up on Wall Street's radar, as worries grow that
months of elevated interest rates may be starting to hurt U.S.
growth.
For months, investors had been heartened by cooling
inflation and gradually slowing employment, believing they
bolstered the case for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates.
Now that a September rate cut has come into view following a
Fed meeting earlier this week, investors are worried that the
central bank may have left rates at restrictive levels for too
long, allowing them to take a toll on economic growth.
Evidence of such a shift in thinking came on Thursday, when
data showing weakness in the labor market and manufacturing
sector sparked a sharp selloff in U.S. equities, with investors
dumping everything from chip stocks to industrials while piling
into defensive plays. Richly valued tech stocks tumbled,
extending losses in the Nasdaq Composite to nearly 8%
from a record closing high reached in July.
"The narrative has been that rate cuts are just because
inflation is coming closer to the target while everything else
remains pretty solid," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment
strategist at Edward Jones. "But now there are some cracks."
The concerns put a spotlight on upcoming releases - such as
Friday's employment data and an inflation report later this
month - that could exacerbate worries if they show further signs
of weakness.
Next week brings earnings from industrial bellwether
Caterpillar ( CAT ) and media and entertainment giant Walt
Disney ( DIS ), which will give more insight into the health of
the consumer and manufacturing, as well as reports from
healthcare heavyweights such as weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly ( LLY )
.
Bets in the futures markets on Thursday suggested growing
unease about the economy. Fed fund futures reflected traders
pricing in an over 25% chance of a 50-basis point cut at the
central bank's September meeting, double the odds from a day
before, according to CME FedWatch. Futures priced a total of 85
basis points in rate cuts in 2024, compared to just over 60
basis points priced in on Wednesday.
"The comfort that (the market) took yesterday in feeling
that the Fed was on track for a September rate cut has switched
to the reality that there is a lot of time between now and that
September meeting," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at
BMO Wealth Management.
Broader markets also showed signs of unease. The Cboe
Volatility index - known as Wall Street's fear gauge -
stands near a three-month high as demand for options protection
against a stock market selloff rose. Worries over fresh turmoil
in the Middle East also contributed to investor nervousness.
Meanwhile, investors have shown a preference for sectors
such as utilities and healthcare - popular options during times
of economic uncertainty.
Options data for the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund
showed the average daily balance between put and call
contracts over the last month at its most bullish in about three
years, according to a Reuters analysis of Trade Alert data.
Trading in the options on Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund
also shows a pullback in defensive positioning,
highlighting traders' expectations for strength for the sector.
The healthcare sector is up 4% in the past month,
while utilities are up over 9%. By contrast, the
Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index is down 11% in that
period amid sharp losses in investor favorites such as Nvidia ( NVDA )
and Broadcom ( AVGO ).
To be sure, some investors said the data could just be an
excuse to lock in profits after the market's overall strong run
in 2024.
"What you're seeing now, and you'd probably see it for the
next month or two, is some kind of consolidation and sideways
price action," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist at
Bell Curve Trading. "The bigger picture bull trend is intact."
Investors will have more earnings reports to chew over in
the weeks ahead, including Nvidia ( NVDA ) at the end of the month, while
the U.S. presidential race could add to volatility.
"It's such a fine line because you want just enough economic
weakness that the Fed will have to cut rates but not so much
that it becomes bad for corporate earnings," said Burns
McKinney, a portfolio manager at NFJ. "The Fed has almost been
like a surfer riding a wave and trying to time everything just
right."