NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The health of the U.S.
consumer moves into the spotlight next week, with investors
watching corporate earnings reports and retail sales data for
further confirmation of the economic resilience that has boosted
equity markets this month.
As earnings season kicks off, stocks are on a roll. The
benchmark S&P 500 is set to post its fifth straight
weekly gain and is hovering near a fresh record high after
rising over 21% this year.
Driving the gains is a string of encouraging economic data
that have all but dispelled the slowdown fears that rocked
markets over the summer. Among these was a blowout jobs report
earlier this month, the latest sign that the economy is
maintaining solid growth as the Federal Reserve cuts interest
rates - a historically potent combination for stock market
gains.
"For the most part, the majority of the economic data stream
has been positive," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B
Riley Wealth. "Hopefully that gets confirmation with some of the
more consumer-facing companies that are reporting next week."
Earnings from American Express ( AXP ), Netflix ( NFLX ), United Airlines,
Procter & Gamble ( PG ) and several major banks will give a broad view
of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of
U.S. economic activity. Retail sales data is expected on Oct.
17.
Shares of JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo jumped as earnings
season got into gear on Friday, after both lenders surpassed
estimates.
Expectations have firmed that the economy will avoid a
downturn despite a long period of elevated interest rates.
Goldman Sachs ( GS ), for example, lowered the odds of a U.S. recession
in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15% following
the employment data.
Robust data has supported that view. In addition to jobs,
reports on consumer prices and the services sector suggest that
fears of a rapidly weakening economy - prompted by disappointing
labor market reports in August and September - were overblown.
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which
measures how economic data stacks up versus expectations, turned
positive this month after being negative since the start of May.
Still, the consumer-spending environment has grown "murkier"
following layoffs at financial services and technology companies
in recent months, back-to-back hurricanes in the Southeast and a
brief dockworkers strike, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment
strategist at Charles Schwab, raising the stakes for data and
company reports to provide clarity.
More insight will come from additional banks reporting in
the coming days, including Bank of America ( BAC ) and Citigroup ( C/PN )
on Tuesday.
American Express' ( AXP ) results will offer a read on more
high-end consumer spending, said Peter Tuz, president of Chase
Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
At the other end of the income spectrum, investors said they
were focusing on how less affluent consumers were grappling with
the rise in prices over the past few years.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management
in Milwaukee, said he will be scrutinizing Netflix's ( NFLX ) results -
specifically whether the streaming service is adding or losing
customers and at what pace - for insight into how lower-income
consumers are reprioritizing spending.
Companies will need to top expectations for profit growth in
their quarterly reports in order to support the stock market's
valuation, which stands well above its historical average.
Among the small number of companies that have already
reported, 79% have topped estimates, in line with the pace of
the past four quarters, LSEG IBES data on Friday showed.
More than 150 S&P 500 companies are expected to report
results over the next two weeks.
Third-quarter results should confirm that large-cap
corporate profit growth remains solid, analysts at UBS Global
Wealth Management said in a note on Friday. "Now that the Fed
has started its rate-cutting cycle, the economy should get a
further boost from lower interest rates on things like credit
card debt and business loans."