* S&P 500 posts weekly gain in wake of worst quarter
since 2022
* March CPI report due April 10, expected to show some
effects of oil surge
* Delta, Constellation Brands ( STZ ) set to report, more Q1
results due later in month
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - A fresh read on inflation
and initial company results next week could start to show the
Middle East war's effects on the U.S. economy and corporate
America, as investors hope to start moving past a conflict that
has consumed markets.
Traders were wrestling with conflicting signals about a
potential winding down of the war that began over a month ago,
with the U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran.
The S&P 500 posted a gain in the holiday-shortened
week, snapping a five-week streak of losses. The benchmark index
earlier in the week closed its worst-performing quarter since
2022, weighed down since late February by the war and the
resulting surge in energy prices.
"It's going to be hard to get the market's attention off the
Middle East, oil prices and the risks that have emerged," said
Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John
Hancock Investments. "The markets have been so myopically
focused on geopolitical risk and ... how all this is going to
shake out."
Stocks have stumbled this year, with concerns about
artificial-intelligence disruption and private credit weakness
compounding uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. The S&P
500 was last down nearly 6% from its late-January all-time high.
The war's impact on oil supplies and energy prices remained
the focal point for investors, especially the status of the
Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East oil-shipping channel
where traffic has stalled. U.S. crude topped $110 a
barrel on Thursday after the commodity earlier in the week
settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
"The market is pricing off oil," said Doug Huber, deputy
chief investment officer at Wealth Enhancement Group. "Inflation
expectations, bond markets -- everything is stuck to this
concept of what oil is doing."
CPI TO JUMP, HIGH PRICES AT THE PUMP
Next week's consumer price index, a closely watched
inflation gauge, stands as an early test of the war's energy
shock. With U.S. crude jumping some 90% since the start of the
year, the U.S. average gasoline price rose above $4 a gallon
this week for the first time in more than three years.
"We think the first stage of oil price pass-through will
have arrived in March via motor fuel," BNP Paribas said in a
note previewing the CPI report.
The March CPI report, due on April 10, is expected to have
climbed 0.9% on a monthly basis, according to a Reuters poll as
of Thursday. Excluding energy as well as food prices, the "core"
CPI level is expected to have risen 0.3%.
Miskin said he would look for "ripple effects" across other
goods and services stemming from the war and energy-price surge,
while adding that the March report may be too soon to see any
broader inflationary impact.
"You're just trying to get as much real-time data as you can
to formulate where the inflation and economic growth trends are
going," Miskin said.
Q1 RESULTS LOOM, WITH BIG PROFIT HOPES
War-driven inflation worries have led markets to largely
rule out interest rate cuts this year, after such cuts had been
a key underpinning for many bullish stock outlooks.
"The market already has inflation on the brain," said
Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison
Investments. If CPI were to "surprise with a much higher print,
that could also be something that the market would take
negatively."
Next week also brings the release of another inflation
measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, but
that PCE data will cover February, a period largely before the
war took hold. An updated read of fourth-quarter U.S. economic
growth is also due, while investors will also analyze
Wednesday's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's
March meeting for any clues about the future path of rates.
The start of earnings season also will start grabbing Wall
Street's attention, with investors counting on a broadly strong
corporate profit outlook to support U.S. stocks this year. Delta
Air Lines ( DAL ) and beverage maker Constellation Brands ( STZ )
are among those due to report next week.
Those reports will offer a taste of the first-quarter
reporting season, which kicks off the following week. S&P 500
companies overall are expected to post a 14.4% rise in
first-quarter earnings from the year-earlier period, according
to LSEG IBES.
"The Q1 earnings season beginning in mid-April should show
that underlying earnings growth is still strengthening and
broadening," Deutsche Bank equity strategists said in a note.