NEW YORK, May 30 (Reuters) - Key U.S. economic data,
developments with federal tax-and-spending legislation and
twists and turns on trade all are poised to influence equities
in the coming week, with the U.S. market closing in on record
highs.
The S&P 500 ended on Friday with a weekly gain and
less than 4% from its February all-time high. The benchmark
index rose about 6.2% in May, while the Nasdaq Composite
surged 9.6%, with both indexes tallying their biggest monthly
increases since November 2023.
Investors at the end of the week were grappling with
implications from legal rulings involving efforts to block most
of President Donald Trump's tariffs. Trump's trade war has
whipsawed global markets for weeks on concerns about economic
fallout.
The coming week also brings a raft of economic and labor
market data, headlined by the monthly U.S. employment report out
on Friday.
"Now that we're back up here not all that far from the
record high, I think the hard data needs to hold in better than
the market expects to really advance from here," said Scott
Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo
Investment Institute.
The employment report for May is expected to show an
increase of 130,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll of
economists, which would be a step down from growth of 177,000
the prior month.
Investors have been eager to learn how Trump's tariffs may
be rippling through the economy, especially in the wake of his
April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping levies on
imports.
The May data represents a full month of "how businesses have
been handling some of the tariff uncertainty and some of the
pressures in the market," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market
strategist at Ameriprise Financial.
Still, an overly strong employment report, such as growth of
over 200,000 jobs, might be viewed warily by the market because
it could delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, said
Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment
Management Corp.
Investors have reduced bets in recent weeks on the amount of
expected Fed easing this year, with about two rate cuts priced
in by December, according to LSEG data.
Minutes of their latest meeting released this week showed
Fed officials acknowledged they could face "difficult tradeoffs"
in coming months with rising inflation alongside rising
unemployment.
Fiscal legislation in Washington will also be in focus. The
Senate will start considering a tax-and-spending bill passed
earlier this month by the House of Representatives. Trump said
this week he plans to negotiate aspects of the "big, beautiful"
tax bill, a day after billionaire Elon Musk said the bill
detracts from efforts to reduce the U.S. budget deficit.
The bill, which will add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the
federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next
decade, has focused attention on the impact of increasing
deficits on the Treasury market. Rising bond yields have
pressured stocks in recent weeks.
The shifting tariff backdrop also appeared likely to
influence asset prices. Equities rebounded in recent weeks after
Trump eased his harshest tariffs, but the situation remains in
flux as Washington negotiates with trading partners.
On Thursday, for instance, stocks rose early the session
after a U.S. trade court blocked many of Trump's tariffs, but
gains faded during the session. Later, a federal appeals court
reinstated the tariffs, further muddying the backdrop.
"There's initial excitement and then the reality set in that
this is just another step in this process and it really hasn't
clarified very much," Kuby said.