* May nonfarm payrolls report due on June 5
* Job growth of 85,000 expected as investors wary of hot
number
* Broadcom ( AVGO ) results pose test for AI trade, soaring semi
shares
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, May 29 (Reuters) - Investors will turn to an
important labor market update next week as they weigh whether
simmering inflation and the potential for interest rate hikes
could derail the rally in U.S. stocks.
Broadcom's ( AVGO ) results also pose a test in the coming
week for the red-hot AI trade. This week, U.S. equity indexes
continued their charge higher, with the benchmark S&P 500
posting a gain for a ninth straight week. The index is up more
than 10% on the year, while the Nasdaq Composite has
climbed 16%.
Technology stocks have led a resurgent market on the back of
strong profit outlooks driven by the AI boom, after tech and
other influential megacap stocks were hit hard in March.
"That group really had a significant correction," said Chuck
Carlson, CEO at Horizon Investment Services. "What has really
been a fuel for this market was investors going in looking at
the values that had been restored in that group, seeing that
earnings were still growing at pretty rapid rates, and going to
buy them."
Markets have also been buoyed in recent weeks by hopes for an
end to the Iran war, which has now stretched to three months.
Asset prices remain susceptible to developments in the conflict
heading into next week.
JOBS REPORT TO JOLT MARKETS?
The monthly employment report, due on June 5, comes as
investors are increasingly worried about persistently high
inflation, and the potential that this will lead to rate hikes
that would be unwelcome for stocks.
Data on Thursday showed that the Personal Consumption
Expenditures Price Index rose 3.8% in the 12 months through
April, the largest rise since May 2023, driven by higher energy
prices amid the Iran war. The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE
inflation measures for its 2% target.
"If you were to get a hot employment report alongside
still-rising inflation numbers, I think it continues to change
the outlook for Fed policy," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief
investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial
Research. "If it were to be a weaker-than-expected report, then
maybe it calms fears that the Fed is going to have to shift to a
tightening stance."
May's payrolls report is expected to show an unemployment
rate of 4.3% and an increase of 85,000 jobs, according to a
Reuters poll as of Friday.
An increase of more than 150,000 jobs might be problematic
for equities if it fuels fears about an "overheating" economy
that also drives U.S. Treasury yields higher, said Angelo
Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones.
"We have enough indications that economic activity remains
solid," Kourkafas said, including the Atlanta Federal Reserve's
GDPNow model tracking to 3.8% second-quarter growth, following a
blowout first quarter for U.S. corporate profits.
He said that suggests markets should be "less concerned
about that recessionary outcome ... but more so are we talking
about a potentially overheating economy?"
BROADCOM ON TAP, YIELDS SIMMER
Quarterly results on Wednesday from semiconductor firm Broadcom ( AVGO )
, the sixth-largest U.S. company by market
capitalization, could cause ripples on Wall Street.
Semiconductor shares skyrocketed in recent weeks over optimism
about rising chipmaker profits amid the massive AI
infrastructure buildout.
Since the March 30 market low for the year, the Philadelphia
SE Semiconductor Index has jumped about 80%, while
Broadcom ( AVGO ) shares climbed more than 50%. The S&P 500 is up more
than 19% in that time.
Other U.S. economic data next week include reports on
manufacturing and services sector activity. Another key
inflation report the following week will be among the last data
before Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair on June 16-17.
Futures pricing is indicating a greater chance of a rate
hike this year than a cut, despite President Donald Trump's
fervent wishes for the Fed to ease monetary policy.
The potential for rate hikes along with rising inflation is
factoring into the recent rise in bond yields.
Although benchmark U.S. Treasury yields have backed off
somewhat, with the 10-year yield around 4.45%, rising yields are
a risk for equities, Carlson said. Higher bond yields stand to
translate into higher borrowing costs for consumers and
businesses, while also creating more investment competition for
stocks.
"If you saw a real spike in interest rates that was
maintained ... that would be the thing that I think would be
most disconcerting for investors," Carlson said.